Excess deaths will remain high, warn chief medics
Leading pandemic experts say increase in non-covid mortality will continue for ‘prolonged period’
BRITAIN will face a “prolonged period” of excess deaths after operations were cancelled and people avoided the NHS during the pandemic, Sir Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance have said.
Sir Chris, the chief medical officer (CMO) for England and Sir Patrick, the government’s chief scientific adviser, made the comments in a co-authored technical report on Covid-19 in the UK.
All four UK CMOS, the NHS England national medical director, and the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) chief executive are also signatories.
The report, published last night by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), was written for future public health leaders facing new pandemics, it said.
Across 11 chapters the authors cover topics such as care homes, contract tracing, testing and lockdowns.
An introduction to the report stresses it is not a “definitive narrative” of the pandemic to date, or policy decisions that had been taken. However, it is the first comprehensive run-through of events over the past two-and-a-half years, and their implications, that has been published by officials.
It comes after the start of the UK Covid-19 inquiry, chaired by Baroness Hallett, which will begin public hearings next year.
In chapter 10, “Improvements in care of Covid-19”, the authors set out changes to healthcare, such as GPS moving to remote appointments and the postponement of elective surgeries.
There were “limits” to how far telephone and video GP appointments could replace face-to-face appointments, the report said, but that “in many cases the balance of risks and benefits still favoured remote support”.
Of measures put in place after the surge in Covid patients, the report said: “Shifting to remote consultations, discouraging unnecessary health setting presentations and asking that those with specific symptoms avoid healthcare settings unless necessary has been an effective way to reduce potential transmission risks and additional burden at a time of significant pressure.
“However, this must be balanced with a risk that health-seeking behaviours were adjusted to such a degree that there was significant unmet need, with resulting impacts on mortality.”
Despite Sir Chris stressing public “emergency care was always open for business”, far fewer people presented at A&E in the first wave, the report said.
“Some people who would (and could) have come forward did not because of a sense of altruism or perceived risk of being in hospital,” it added.
Delays in patients coming forward, a reduction in preventative medication – such as statins – and the cancellation of surgeries and screenings “will have led to later and more severe” non-covid illness, the authors conclude.
“The combined effect of this will likely lead to a prolonged period of noncovid excess mortality and morbidity after the worst period of the pandemic is over,” it said.
Recent data from the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID) show that since the beginning of September there have been nearly 900 more cancer deaths than would have been expected at this time of year.
The report authors also praised the “extraordinary speed” at which Covid vaccines were delivered. But they warned: “There is a danger this falsely reassures some policymakers that a vaccine can be produced at this speed for the next pandemic.”
The term “lockdowns” will come to be “most associated” with the pandemic, the authors predict, as they acknowledged it was the “most intense” measure taken to curb the virus.
Despite being “highly effective” at reducing Covid transmission in the first wave, they claim, lockdowns caused concerns in areas such as mental health, domestic abuse and safeguarding.
“There will also be further impacts that were not measured or have not yet been fully realised,” they added.