Next week will be a referendum on Boris
Thursday’s vote in North Shropshire could see the PM facing a dangerous reckoning. Gordon Rayner and Tony Diver report
For Neil Shastri-hurst, the Conservative candidate for North Shropshire, it should have been the easiest of doorknocks. Lifelong Tory voter Pearl Morris not only had a campaign poster of Mr Shastri-hurst in the window of her detached home in Oswestry, she also lives next door to a party activist.
“Thank you so much for putting my poster up,” said Mr Shastri-hurst cheerily as 77-year-old Mrs Morris answered her door. But she didn’t return his smile.
“That’s quite alright,” she said, “but I must say to you, this year I can’t vote for that charlatan you have got in charge. Next time round, he’ll have gone, won’t he? And you can have [my vote] back. But I really can’t vote for him.”
When the crestfallen candidate asked why his campaign poster was in her window, Mrs Morris replied: “My husband put it up. But I will add that he has got dementia.”
Worryingly for Boris Johnson, Mrs Morris is not the only dyed-in-thewool Tory voter who plans to turn their back on the party in next Thursday’s by-election.
Following the resignation of Owen Paterson over events that fall under the umbrella term of “sleaze”, support for the Conservatives has drained away to the extent that several leading bookmakers have now installed the Liberal Democrats as favourites to win on Dec 16.
The by-election will come at the end of a week that seems increasingly likely to decide whether Mr Johnson will face an imminent leadership challenge.
First, he must navigate a Commons vote on his “Plan B” Covid restrictions that already looks likely to provoke the biggest Tory rebellion since the calamitous end of Theresa May’s premiership.
Tuesday’s vote in Parliament will show the extent to which his authority among MPS has been damaged by the events of the past month, and particularly the past week. It is difficult to overstate the anger in Tory ranks at the self-inflicted wounds over “Partygate”, “Flatgate” and the Owen Paterson affair, all of which are blamed directly on Downing Street.
Even MPS who have been loyal to the Prime Minister until now are describing his No10 operation as a “----show” and a “shambles”.
Upwards of 50 Tory backbenchers have publicly expressed an intention to defy the whip and vote against Plan B next week, leaving Mr Johnson almost certainly having to rely on Labour votes to get the measures through.
The rebels include such prominent names as Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 backbench committee, former leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith and former Cabinet ministers David Davis, Liam Fox, Esther Mcvey, Greg Clark and John Redwood.
Party insiders believe that between five and 10 members of the Government will resign in order to vote against the measures. In Parliament this week, the Tory MP Will Wragg even went so far as to accuse the Prime Minister of bringing in the extra restrictions simply as a “diversionary tactic” to divert headlines away from his mounting problems.
None of which might matter if Mr Johnson was still as popular with the public as he was in 2019, when he defied gravity to pull off his 80-seat majority. But the problem for the Prime Minister is that his personal popularity, his sword and shield against his critics, appears to be on the wane.
Thursday’s by-election will be regarded as a referendum on his leadership, and the polls are not promising for Mr Johnson.
Earlier this week, a snap Savanta Comres poll found a majority of respondents believed he should resign over the “Partygate” scandal. Then, on Thursday, two surveys of Westminster voting intention put Labour well in the lead; Yougov put Labour on 37 per cent, up four points on last week, with the Tories on 33 per cent, down three points. Survation put Labour on 40 per cent, up one point, and the Tories on 34 per cent, down two points. A Yougov poll published yesterday showed the PM’S net favourability rating – which stood at +29 in April 2020 – had plunged to a new low of -42. Sir Keir Starmer’s net rating stands at -14, with the figure worked out by subtracting the “unpopular” responses from the “popular” ones. In his Tory shires uniform of Barbour jacket and corduroy trousers, barrister and military veteran Mr Shastri-hurst, 38, was trying his best to distance himself from the Westminster turmoil as he went canvassing this week.
The Tory candidate told concerned voters that he too was “angered” by the “egregious” footage of No10 staff joking about their Christmas party, and hopes disciplinary action will be taken against rulebreakers. He also tells voters he has made a “cast-iron guarantee” that he will not take a second job (the cause of his predecessor’s downfall). But it may not be enough.
“At heart, I am a Conservative,” said Mrs Morris, after she had turned the Tory candidate away. “But I really am going to be firm with myself while they are as they are, and they really only are behaving as they are because he’s their leader. He just isn’t up to it.”
She is by no means alone. “We are a bit disenchanted with Boris,” said Gordon Burton, 80.
“He seems to stagger from crisis to crisis. Put Covid aside and all of this, he changes his mind.”
“It’s disgraceful,” said Saffron Rainey, 54, who runs an insulation business. “There is a culture in No10 of paying no attention to rules that they themselves have enacted.”
Others talked of a Prime Minister who has “lost all credibility”, who “doesn’t seem to be in charge” and “does more U-turns than a U-boat”.
Prime ministers like to brush off by-election defeats as inevitable mid-term reactions against governments having to take tough decisions. But the difference in North Shropshire is that voters are being turned off not by policies, but by the leader himself.
And for Boris Johnson, that is a very dangerous situation indeed.
Tory MPS picked Mr Johnson as their leader because they saw him as a winner, not because he was popular within Parliament. If he proves to be an electoral liability, his unique selling proposition will have vanished.
One backbencher said: “His problem is that he doesn’t have a tribe within the parliamentary party, so his support is only as good as the election results he can deliver – and if he can’t deliver those, he is in a lot of trouble.”
MPS with long memories recall that, in October 1990, voters in the safe Conservative seat of Eastbourne went to the polls to elect a new MP following the assassination of Ian Gow in an IRA car bomb attack. Mr Gow’s majority of 16,000 was seen as unassailable – yet the Liberal Democrats took it with a swing of 20 per cent, and suddenly Tory backbenchers began to worry that their own seats might be vulnerable.
Six weeks later, Margaret Thatcher, whose personal poll ratings were blamed for the defeat, was ousted as party leader, making her tearful exit from Downing Street.
While history remembers Geoffrey Howe’s resignation speech as the moment that triggered Thatcher’s downfall, it was the Eastbourne by-election that startled the horses and left her exposed. Boris Johnson will be hoping that North Shropshire does not turn out to be his own Eastbourne moment.
The Tory majority of 22,949 is even greater than in Eastbourne, ranking just outside the top 100 of Tory safe seats, meaning that two-thirds of MPS will be defending smaller majorities at the next general election.
There have already been defections: one Tory councillor in the constituency has switched his affiliation to Reclaim, the anti-woke party set up by the actor Laurence Fox; another has jumped ship to Reform UK, the post-brexit party founded by Nigel Farage.
The Liberal Democrats, suddenly sniffing a possible victory, have produced eye-catching election leaflets contrasting a picture of a tearful pensioner (“how she spent last Christmas”) with a grinning Boris Johnson against a background of clinking wine glasses (“how Boris spent last Christmas”).
The Libdem candidate Helen Morgan told The Telegraph: “There are a lot of Conservative switchers out there who have already committed to switch to us, and another big chunk who are showing signs of discontent and dissatisfaction.” She added that she did not feel “there has been a great will to fight for it” from Tory activists.
In Westminster, disgruntled MPS who have loyally travelled to North Shropshire to help with campaigning have returned to London dejected, telling colleagues they had wasted their time because Mr Johnson’s behaviour has turned off so many voters.
Ladbrokes, William Hill, Paddy Power and Skybet have all made the Libdem candidate Helen Morgan favourite to win.
What will happen if she does?
“If the by-election goes badly, the pressure will really mount,” said one Tory backbencher.
“You won’t see anything happening this side of Christmas because Parliament will be in recess when the result comes out, but I wouldn’t be surprised if people start making moves in January. That’s when you might see MPS writing letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady.
“I’ve never known this level of disquiet on the backbenches during Boris’s time as PM.”
While parliamentary recesses make it more difficult for MPS to plot potential coups, they also give them time to ruminate. Exposed for weeks on end to angry constituents, they will fear even greater restrictions on the other side of the holiday in a rumoured “Plan C”.
Ask any potential leadership rival whether they are preparing for a possible tilt at the top job, and all will, of course, declare their undying loyalty to Mr Johnson. But behind the scenes, soundings are already being taken by outriders of those most likely to grasp the crown should Mr Johnson be unseated.
“Discreet conversations are happening,” said one Tory source. “PPSS [parliamentary private secretaries] are having words with
‘Boris’s problem is he has no tribe – his support is only as good as election results can deliver’
people, MPS who are loyal to certain ministers are having chats with people, and small private dinners have been going on for several months.
“Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss are the most likely candidates if something happened quickly, but Dominic Raab is thinking about it, and Sajid Javid thinks there is space for him somewhere.”
If, as in 1990, the party decided a calmer, safer leader was needed, it could turn to Jeremy Hunt, the man who came second to Mr Johnson last time around.
Speaking to the comedian Matt Forde on his podcast this week, Mr Hunt said that as far as any future leadership contest was concerned, “I’m the outside bet. It’s a mug’s game to predict what will happen. I don’t rule out it happening at some stage, but nor do I want to rule it in as the thing that I’m going to hang my life on.”
The problems with Mr Johnson are not new, but he is running out of time to fix them. Swept to power on the promise of “Get Brexit Done”, he retained his popularity thanks to the world-leading success of the vaccination programme, an unforeseen benefit of Brexit as the UK went it alone.
His other policies have not been so universally popular among his own MPS. The 1.25 per cent National Insurance rise, due to hit pay packets in April, confirmed the Tories as a party of tax and spend and increased the tax burden to its highest level since the 1950s. Without NHS reform, there are very real fears that the extra billions for the NHS and social care will be wasted.
It is Downing Street’s apparent inability to think strategically, and to exert the all-important “grip” in a crisis, however, that has angered the most MPS.
By over-selling and underdelivering on HS2, a £96billion project has been written off as a flop by the public because it will no longer go to Leeds, rather than the triumph it might have been seen as if the original plans had been more cautious.
Then came the Owen Paterson fiasco that triggered the North Shropshire by-election. MPS were appalled that Mr Johnson tried to link reform of the standards system to the Paterson case – accepted by most as a lost cause – which turned to rage when they were told to vote for it, only for the Government to abandon the whole plan the next day after finally realising it was doomed.
This week, it was Partygate, a scandal that could have been nipped in the bud with a swift explanation of what happened and a disciplinary process for those involved, but which was instead allowed to drag on for almost a week before Mr Johnson was forced to react by a leaked video of his staff joking about the very event he claimed had not happened.
Douglas Ross, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, said Mr Johnson “cannot continue in the highest office in the land” if a Cabinet Office inquiry into the matter finds he misled Parliament about what went on under his own roof. Ruth Davidson, the woman many Tory supporters had hoped would one day lead their party, said that: “None of this is remotely defensible. Not having busy, boozy not-parties while others were sticking to the rules… nor flat-out denying things that are easily provable.” She added: “Believe me, colleagues are furious.”
To round off the week, the Electoral Commission dropped the bombshell that it was fining the Conservative Party £17,800 for breaking rules on reporting donations over the refurbishment of Mr Johnson’s Downing Street flat. Lord Geidt, the Prime Minister’s adviser on standards, discovered that the Electoral Commission had been given evidence that was not given to him when he conducted his own inquiry into the matter earlier this year, and is now considering his position.
While there is much talk of a possible challenge to Mr Johnson’s leadership, not even the most excitable Tory MPS are writing him off just yet.
There is a consensus in the parliamentary party that Mr Johnson can still turn things around, but only if he swiftly rebuilds his No10 team.
Lord Lister, the former Downing Street chief of staff, is understood to be considering a return to oversee the hiring of a new senior adviser.
“It is salvageable if he gets some grown-ups in No 10,” said one Tory MP. “He also needs a new chief whip who can instil discipline, because MPS have lost respect for Mark Spencer after voting for toxic things like the reform of standards procedures which were then ditched the next day.
“But he needs to move quickly if he loses in North Shropshire.” Mr Johnson hates sacking people, as evidenced by his failure to act swiftly against Dominic Cummings or Matt Hancock, but he will have to learn to be ruthless if he is to win back the respect of his MPS.
Difficult as it may be to believe, this week had been billed by Downing Street as “crime week”, starting off with a new crackdown on middle-class drug users. The rest of the week was supposed to be filled with daily announcements of tough policies on law and order.
Instead, the Metropolitan Police ended up handling complaints of a “crime” committed in No 10 as its officers reviewed evidence relating to last year’s Christmas parties before deciding not to launch an investigation – for now, at least.
In the midst of all this, on Thursday morning, the Prime Minister’s wife Carrie gave birth to their second child. He is not the sort of man who is ever likely to quit to “spend more time with his family” – but if next week goes badly for him, that decision might soon be out of his hands.