14-day quarantine rule for new arrivals ‘largely ignored’

THE 14-day quarantine period for air passengers arriving in the UK is the least effective of all strategies to prevent the spread of Covid in the community, a study has found.

Researchers found it only captured 25 per cent of those who could potentially spread the disease because the long quarantine period brought a higher rate of non-compliance.

The study by Oxera and Edge Health found the most effective strategy for preventing further transmission of the coronavirus was testing arrivals three days into quarantine and releasing them if the results were negative.

This minimised the number of days that potentially infectious people were in the community by 60 per cent. That compared with 53 per cent if they were tested after five days in quarantine and 45 per cent after seven days.

Even those tested on arrival at the airport – which the Government has ruled out because of the apparent difficulty in detecting asymptomatic travellers – had lower onward community transmission rates, with the chances reduced by 50 per cent.

The calculations were based on modelling, confirmed by the Government’s own Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), that as few as 28 per cent of asymptomatic individuals comply with quarantine and just 71 per cent of those with symptoms. By contrast, Public Health England assumed a compliance rate of 100 per cent.

The report comes as the Government’s testing task force, chaired by Grant Shapps, the Transport Secretary, and Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, is due to report to the Prime Minister this week.

It i s understood that Mr Shapps favours a test at five days, reducing quarantine to almost a third of the current fortnight. However, he could face a backlash from medical experts within the Government. Seventh day testing is also being considered.

Shai Weiss, chief executive of Virgin Atlantic, said: “This new modelling provides yet more evidence that the Government is significantly underestimating the efficacy of passenger testing

“But it also shows that the current 14-day quarantine policy is fundamentally flawed in ignoring human behaviour and compliance with the rules.

“With the aviation industry all but grounded since March, it’s essential that the UK Government’s Global Travel Taskforce acts swiftly to ensure that a robust passenger testing regime is in place within the UK by the start of December.”