Rebels will not thrive as a party without defining themselves

Breaking up is hard to do. But turning a new political party into a success is even tougher. That is the lesson the former Conservative and Labour MPS who this week have formed the new Independent Group in the House of Commons will soon learn.

Not that the new group lacks any prospect of success. Their motivations for leaving their parties differ, but the 11 MPS who have formed the new group share two perceptions. The first is that their former party is too “extreme”, and has been “taken over” by members whose views are at odds with their own. The second is that they dislike Brexit and would like Britain to use a second referendum to change its mind about leaving the EU.

There would seem to be plenty of room for a party that opposes Brexit. The Liberal Democrats do so, but they are still struggling to recover from the damage the 2010-15 coalition did to their reputation. The SNP has also joined the ranks of those who want a second EU referendum, but their reach is limited to north of the Border.

Hitherto, many Remain voters have invested their faith in Labour. Recent polls find that about 46 per cent of those who voted Remain in 2016 would vote Labour in an immediate general election. Yet the party is still committed to delivering Brexit, albeit a softer one than Mrs May, and appears reluctant to endorse a second referendum.

At the same time, there is a sizeable minority of Remain voters, 27 per cent or so, who would vote Conservative, seemingly still bound by traditional loyalty and dislike of Jeremy Corbyn. That loyalty might yet be tested were Britain to find itself heading for the EU exit door without a deal.

Meanwhile, there are signs that a new anti-brexit group might be able to win over some Remain voters. Within hours of the formation of the new group on Monday, Survation were reporting that 8 per cent of all voters would back a “new centrist party that was opposed to Brexit”, while among those who voted Remain in 2016 the figure stood at 15 per cent.

However, any new party will have to win over much more support if it is to make a significant breakthrough. Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system is unmerciful in its treatment of small parties whose vote is geographically evenly spread – as Ukip discovered to its cost. Apart from some heartlands in London, university towns and Scotland (where dislodging the SNP currently looks a tall order), Remain support typically does not vary greatly from one constituency to another. A pro-remain party could well struggle to turn votes into seats.

Moreover, there is little to be gained if all that any new pro-remain party does is to compete with the Liberal Democrats for a niche market.

Survation’s polling found that Liberal Democrat voters were more likely to switch to a putative new centrist, pro-remain party than either Conservative or Remain voters. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats do at least have some organisation, policy, and foot soldiers on the ground, all of which the new Independent Group currently lacks. There is little doubt that, much like the SDP in the early Eighties, the new group will have to reach some accommodation with the Liberal Democrats. However, as Roy Jenkins and his colleagues discovered, forging such a relationship can result in many a tension and potential pitfall.

At present, however, the new group has the advantage of novelty. In choosing the name “Independent Group”, it has avoided giving any clear cues about where it stands on the political spectrum. This lack of definition could be helpful in the short term. When Yougov simply described the new group as a number of Labour MPS who had resigned from the party, they put support for the grouping as high as 14 per cent.

But this included 11 per cent of Leave voters who perhaps were attracted to a group that sounded as though it was cocking a snook at all parties. No party can survive for long on any such ill-defined protest vote alone.

John Curtice is a Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University and senior research fellow, Natcen Social Research