Rebellion among educated Republican women may turn the tide against leader
For Donald Trump and the Republican Party it seems there is something rotten in the suburbs of Virginia. Going into next week’s midterm elections after two years of Donald Trump at the White House, nowhere should be more staunchly Republican than Loudon.
In this, the wealthiest of all America’s 3,007 counties, average income is £103,700. A Confederate statue stands proudly in the centre of Leesburg, the county town. The National Rifle Association headquarters is not far from here.
But amid the leafy cul-de-sacs a rebellion is stirring. On manicured lawns, Democrat signs proliferate. Pollsters (not just Democrat ones) say there is a seismic political shift among suburban, female, college-educated voters. It could signify a Republican disaster on Tuesday.
At the picture-postcard Mom’s Apple Pie Bakery, anecdotal evidence suggests the polls, on this occasion, could be right. Kylie Lassiter, 24, a natural Republican but now undecided, said: “Trump’s said some awful things about women and it 100 per cent factors into my vote. I’ll be voting for someone who promotes equal rights.”
Priscilla Hall, 19, from a Republican family, added: “It’s kind of disturbing to have the leader of your country say things like he does. He needs to shut up sometimes. I’m voting Green.”
Loudon County makes up a large proportion of Virginia’s 10th Congressional District, a Republican bastion for 40 years. Barbara Comstock, the incumbent Republican congresswoman, trails Jennifer Wexton, her Democrat opponent.
Mrs Wexton’s camp has bombarded the district’s television screens with an advert portraying her opponent as “Barbara Trumpstock,” saying how she voted for Mr Trump’s policies “98 per cent” of the time in Congress.
Mrs Comstock, meanwhile, finds herself in the odd position of trying to distance herself from the president. A video of her listening sympathetically to a sexual assault victim appears on her website and Facebook page. Her allies remind voters she called on him to leave the presidential race in 2016 after a tape emerged of him disparaging women.
Recent polls have shown Democrats have a lead of 27 per cent among the area’s college-educated women, massively up on previous elections.
Mrs Comstock’s spokesman did not respond to requests for an interview. But Mrs Wexton’s spokesman claimed the gap was even bigger in Virginia’s 10th District: “It’s off the charts. It’s going to be the story of the midterm elections,” he said. “We’re seeing it in our polling, we see it knocking doors. College-educated women are turning out in huge numbers to knock on doors for us. The reason is obvious. Trump. They’ve had it with him.”
Democrats need to turn 23 seats to win back the 435-seat House of Representatives. Many of the key battleground districts are in suburban areas, including in California, New York and Pennsylvania.
But “Virginia 10” has become something of a totemic target for Democrats. If they can topple Mrs Comstock, the thinking goes, they can topple anyone, anywhere.
For that reason Republicans also view the race symbolically, and have poured £4million into television advertising. All is not lost for them – even among female voters. Sheri Rhodes, 38, an insurance agent, thought Mrs Comstock could still win, and backed Mr Trump’s stance on the migrant caravan from Central America.
“The things that Trump said about women were years ago. He’s changed. Anyway, women are just as bad as men,” she said. “Immigration is the important issue. They need to turn the caravan back home. It is an invasion. Our economy is under stress already. How are we going to help them when we can’t help our own?”
Stacey Powell, 39, another Leesburg voter, said: “I’ve supported Trump from the start and I still do. He’s real. He’s not fake. He’s got so much money no one can buy him.”
On election night Virginia 10 will be among the first places in the US to close the voting. Exit polls will be scrutinised at the White House for any sign of a collapse in the vote.
“The most vulnerable part of the Republican coalition is these suburban voters, and particularly the women suburban voters,” said Dr Stephen Farnsworth, a professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington in Virginia. “If the early signs are Comstock is in trouble, it will be a very long night for Republicans.
“It’s becoming clear that Trump has energised Democratic women, both as voters and as candidates.”
In Virginia alone there are four competitive Congressional districts, and Democrats have fielded female candidates in all of them. The 7th District is seeing a battle royale between Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA agent, and Dave Brat, a hero of the Republican Tea Party surge in 2010. The district, Republican for 50 years, was considered unlosable. In the latest poll, however, it is tied.
At a campaign event in a suburban Italian restaurant, Mrs Spanberger said she had settled in a Virginia suburb to raise her children but Trump’s 2016 win spurred her to run for Congress.
“In 2016 there was so much division and anger in our political system. And Trump took it to a fever pitch. It motivated me. Let’s focus on bringing back decency and civility.”
Latest polls show a big gender gap with men favouring Mr Brat and women Mrs Spanberger. Mr Brat focuses on immigration, accusing his opponent of supporting open borders.
His spokesman said: “Right now illegal Honduran immigrants are crossing Mexico toward our border, but Abigail Spanberger is silent. Why? Because she’s weak on immigration.”
Republicans still believe they can win both of the key Virginia races. Steve Bannon, Mr Trump’s former chief strategist, will campaign for Mr Brat this weekend and said victory was “very, very tough but doable”.
He added: “This could come down to a couple of seats. I know how to get the base jacked up. That’s what needs to be done here.”
‘Women are turning out in huge numbers for us. The reason is obvious. Trump. They’ve had it with him’