Fare rises, no passports and BA on the up

What will flying be like in 2033? Aviation expert John Arlidge delivers some blue-sky thinking on how taking to the skies might change

High-tech jets, new routes, green initiatives and rising costs will transform aviation in the next decade. Here’s how we think taking to the skies will change – and why British Airways could become big and beautiful again.

THE BIGGEST AIRLINE IN

EUROPE WILL BE…

Ryanair – still – with 300 million passengers a year (up from 167 million now). Price trumps all other factors in short-haul and Ryanair also has the biggest expansion plans – it has just ordered 300 new Boeing jets for delivery between 2027 and 2033.

THE BIGGEST LONG-HAUL AIRLINE IN THE WORLD

WILL BE…

Turkish Airlines. It will overtake Emirates, thanks to a massive fleet expansion – it has 600 aircraft on order – and its new Istanbul hub, which has five runways and will be capable of handling 170 million passengers a year by 2033. (Dubai International, Emirates’ hub and currently the world’s busiest international airport, has only two runways and will soon max out at 120 million passengers a year.)

THE WORLD’S BUSIEST

AIRPORT WILL BE…

Beijing Daxing, which will finally knock Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson from its perch, with about 200 million annual domestic and international travellers.

BRITISH AIRWAYS WILL BE… Forty-nine per cent owned by Qatar Airways. The Gulf super-connector – the seven-time winner of the Skytrax World’s Best Airline award – already has a 25 per cent stake in IAG, BA’s parent company. And it’s passengers who will see the benefit, with the new joint venture likely to offer a premium service to almost anywhere on the planet from twin hubs in London and Doha.

VIRGIN ATLANTIC WILL BE… Working even more closely with Delta Air Lines, which already owns 49 per cent of the carrier. It might also be in partnership with easyJet. Virgin needs a short-haul feeder partner and easyJet a long-haul partner in order to grow. Such a move could see Virgin return to Gatwick.

FIRST-CLASS CABINS WILL BE… Rarer – found only on super-premium routes, such as London to New York, Los Angeles, Singapore, Dubai and Cape Town. They will also be smaller – with six to eight seats at most – and more like private jets, with sofas that turn into beds.

Singapore Airlines’ Suites class, which offers double beds, and Etihad’s the Residence – a 125 sq ft private apartment with a living area, bathroom with shower, and double bed in the nose cone – show the way.

BUSINESS CLASS CABINS

WILL BE…

Smaller as business travel declines relative to leisure travel, and all about privacy. With even “How ya’ goin’?” Qantas and “Party-on!” Virgin Atlantic installing doors in business class, prepare to be put in a box with a flat bed whether you like it or not.

PREMIUM ECONOMY CABINS

WILL BE…

Everywhere. Every major airline will introduce the class, including Qatar Airways, which is currently holding out. The cabins will expand, too, for two reasons. First, the number of leisure travellers who want comfort but cannot afford business class is increasing rapidly. Second, premium economy is the most profitable cabin on an aircraft per square foot.

ECONOMY CLASS CABINS

WILL LOOK…

Better – but only a little; it’s still economy. Seats will be thinner, providing a few more centimetres of legroom. In-flight entertainment will improve thanks to an endless choice of films, television programmes and music, bigger screens and Wi-Fi that actually works.

FARES WILL BE…

Higher. Most Western nations will impose levies to support the development of much-needed sustainable aviation fuels, with the cost passed on to passengers.

BRITAIN’S AIRPORTS WILL…

Grow fast – but only outside the southeast. Both Heathrow and Gatwick are full, but environmental concerns mean no major new runway will be built at either. So Stansted, Birmingham, Manchester, Bristol, Cardiff, Southampton, Exeter, Edinburgh and Glasgow airports will all expand.

They will offer more long-haul, non-stop services – often using new single-aisle, twin-engine jets, such as the long-range Airbus A321 – flying to the Gulf and east-coast cities in North America at a low cost per seat. Aer Lingus is already using A321s to fly to New York, Boston, Washington, Philadelphia and Toronto from regional airports.

AMERICAN AIRPORTS WILL REMAIN …

The seventh circle of hell.

CHECK-IN WILL BE…

Non-existent. Our faces and irises will be our passport. We will simply walk past a facial scanner to security.

AIRPORT SECURITY WILL BE… A brisk walk. We will simply stroll through an X-ray arch. No need to stop or remove liquid or laptops from our hand luggage.

BAGGAGE DROP WILL BE… Self-service – in a good way. Every piece of hold luggage will have a personalised RFID (radio frequency ID) tag that links to our booking. Just pop your bag down a chute.

JOURNEYS TO THE AIRPORT

WILL BE…

Automated – and faster. Self-driving cars, on dedicated roads, will take us and our luggage directly to the gate, where our plane is waiting, and we will check in there.

AIRPORT SHOPPING WILL BE… Done online and collected at the airport after we arrive or delivered straight to our hotel or Airbnb.

PLANES WILL…

Get smaller. The Boeing 747 has all but left the skies – Lufthansa is the only major carrier that soldiers on with a fleet of jumbos. Airbus has ended production of its A380 superjumbo, and Emirates, which has the largest A380 fleet, will scrap its last “big bird” by 2040. In future, the single-decker, twin-engine Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 and 777X will rule the skies.

AVERAGE FLIGHT TIMES WILL BE… Shorter, thanks to new ultra-long-haul routes, such as London and New York non-stop to Sydney and Melbourne, and the introduction of battery- and hydrogen-powered planes on shorthaul routes, which will taxi and take off faster than fossil fuel-powered jets.

DOMESTIC FOSSIL-FUEL POWERED EUROPEAN FLIGHTS OF LESS THAN ONE HOURWILL BE… Banned by the EU. Travellers will have to take the train.

PRIVATE JETS IN EUROPE WILL BE…

Fuelled 100 per cent by sustainable aviation fuel, or battery, or hydrogen, to avoid government bans.

SUPERSONIC TRAVEL WILL BE… Stuck on the tarmac. A commercial successor to Concorde is unlikely to race through the Earth’s atmosphere, because its vast fuel burn per passenger will make the guilt too hard to offset.

THE NEW ULTIMATE AIR TRAVEL STATUS SYMBOL WILL BE… Qantas’s first class, non-stop London and New York to Sydney and Melbourne – at $20,000 return.

NO ONE WILL HAVE DISCOVERED A WAY TO BEAT…

Turbulence.

THE BEST MAJOR LONG-HAUL INTERNATIONAL AIRLINE IN

THE WORLD WILL BE…

Emirates – or the new Qatar/BA. Watch this (air) space.

i Flights of fancy: will Qatar Airways increase its stake in BA in the future?