AXE FEAR FOR SPRING ELECTION
Crucial vote could be delayed till October as Covid puts campaigners and staff at risk
The Scottish Government is drawing up coronavirus contingency plans which could see next year’s crunch Holyrood election cancelled.
The vote is due to be held on May 6 but there are fears the pandemic wi l l make safe campaigning and operation of polling stations impossible and force a postponement.
The Sunday Mail has learned talks are under way between minister s , the E lectora l Commission and political parties over possible a lternat ive arrangements, including pushing the date back until October if necessary.
An option of holding a 100 per cent postal vote is also understood to be under consideration.
A Scott ish Government spokesman said: “We expect the election to go ahead as scheduled
but we are working with the Electoral Management Board, the Electoral Commission, Scottish Parliament and political parties to look at options for potentially running an election in different circumstances from the norm if required.”
The election is shaping up to be one of the most important in the history of devolution. The SNP have been riding high in opinion
polls and a majority win would heap pressure on Prime Minister Boris Johnson to allow a second independence referendum.
Labour leader Keir Starmer said last week that he believed the SNP winning a majority would represent a mandate for a rerun of the 2014 vote.
Senior MSP and former SNP minister Alex Neil said: “I am told the beginning of December is
about the last opportunity you’d have to postpone the election.
“I think if Covid is not under control by then, there is an outside chance that the election will be postponed until October.
“You can’t expect people to go out and vote or campaign or work in polling stations if their lives are potentially going to be at risk.
“It is something that is under discussion between the parties and in the Scottish Government.
“The parties have looked at the possibility of an all-postal vote election but it was felt that was just not feasible.
“I emphasise it is an outside possibility, not a likelihood, at the moment but it is being discussed and it could have to happen.”
Constitution Secretary Mike Russell is understood to have produced a draft paper, which has been circulated among opposition parties. It outlines the possibility the election could be disrupted by coronavirus and looks at options for a replacement date or alternative arrangements.
The main problems with holding the election during a pandemic would be the ability of parties to canvas properly under lockdown conditions and also managing the risk to voters and workers at polling stations.
The election would also see Parliament shut down for a month before the vote and it is feared this could leave the country without a functioning government during a period of national crisis.
Professor James Mitchell, a public policy expert at Edinburgh University, said: “Thought does need to be put into this now and it is good it is being considered by the Scottish Government and the Electoral Commission.
“It seems almost certain that this will not be a normal election, it will be different to some degree as a result of the pandemic and, yes, they should consider a postponement if necessary, though about 30 elections have taken place around the world during the coronavirus crisis.
“Postal voting, for example, has already been increasing and we are likely to see more of that.
“The essential thing is that there is complete transparency and wide consultation on this, and that everybody agrees on the outcome, because this is a very important election for Scotland.
“An SNP majority could be the trigger for a second referendum on independence so we cannot afford to get it wrong and be in a situation afterwards where people are complaining that it hasn’t been fair.
“In terms of who would benefit and lose from a postponement, or an election held during a degree of lockdown, it is hard to say.
“It would disadvantage parties with a large number of people that it could have mobilised to knock doors and canvas if that cannot happen – so that could disadvantage the SNP. If that sort of face-to-face canvassing can’t happen, it will give the media even greater impact than usual.
“Whether or not the SNP would be in a stronger or weaker position at a later date is hard to say.
“They have been seeing strong polling results lately but this week, for example, they are facing criticism over their handling of the universities so things can change quickly.”
Election rules mean the Scottish Parliament’s Presiding Officer has the power to recommend a change to the date of an election by one month either side of the scheduled date.
Beyond this, the date would need to be changed by primary legislation, which would need to be passed by the Parliament.
The Scottish Greens said: “Elections, like every other aspect of life, need to adapt to the pandemic. Running an election safely in these circumstances will be very challenging. The electoral administrators and authorities are examining this and there will need to be full dialogue with Parliament, Government and political parties.”
The Scottish Conservatives said: “We are preparing for the election to be held as planned in May.”
An Electoral Commission spokesman said :“The Commission and the electoral community are working hard to ensure the scheduled May 2021 elections can go ahead, as well as monitoring the ongoing impact of coronavirus.”
A total of 26 MSPs have said they will not seek re- election. A delay would be likely to mean they would be asked to work on and would have to be paid.
Mike Russell, Health Secretary Jeane Freeman, and former Scottish Conservatives leader Ruth Davidson are among the well-known figures that will be stepping down.