Support for a Labour-Plaid deal after vote
A WELSH government based on a deal between Labour and Plaid Cymru would be the most popular outcome to next year’s Senedd election if no party wins a majority, according to a new poll.
The poll – undertaken by Beaufort Research for the Echo – revealed that 39% of respondents said that if no single party won an overall majority, they would prefer a coalition government or other arrangement involving Labour and Plaid Cymru.
This secured the support of more than double the proportion of voters (18%) who backed such a deal involving the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru.
The third most popular deal, with 15% support, would involve Labour and the Conservatives.
Other permutations were backed by 3%, and 25% supported none of the possible options.
No party has ever won an overall majority at elections held since the then National Assembly was founded in 1999.
While Labour currently holds 29 of the 60 seats, it also has the support of Liberal Democrat Education Minister Kirsty Williams and Independent Deputy Culture Minister Dafydd Elis-Thomas, both of whom will not be standing in next May’s election.
Backing for a Labour-Plaid Cymru deal was highest in North Wales, with 43%, and lowest in Mid and West Wales (37%).
A deal between the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru was most popular in North Wales and Mid and West Wales (22%) and least popular in the Valleys (12%).
The prospect of a deal between Labour and the Conservatives gained most support in the Valleys (17%), going down to 14% in North Wales, Mid and West Wales and west South Wales (14%).
There is little difference between the views of men and women on the issue, with 40% of men and 39% of women supporting a deal between Labour and Plaid Cymru.
A Labour-Plaid deal was most popular among those aged 45-54 (48%) and least popular among those aged 65 and over (27%).
Among the 65 and over age bracket, a deal between Labour and the Conservatives (22%) was slightly more popular than one between the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru.
A Labour-Plaid deal was marginally more popular among more prosperous ABC1 voters (41%) than among their lessprosperous C2DE counterparts (37%).
Fluent Welsh-speakers (43%) and nonfluent Welsh-speakers (46%) were more likely to support a Labour-Plaid deal than non-Welsh-speakers (36%), although even among those who can’t speak Welsh the figure was twice as popular as the next option, a deal between the Conservatives and Plaid (18%).
Those with children in the household (45%) were more likely to support a Labour-Plaid deal than those without (37%).
Reacting to the poll findings, Labour MS Alun Davies said: “The centre of political gravity in Wales is centre-left, where people want a strong socialist government but one that is grounded in Welsh values.
“So the poll finding that people are seeking a coalition between Labour and Plaid Cymru is not surprising.
“The experience of Covid has demonstrated that we need a strong Welsh government, not one that is subservient to the Conservative Government in Westminster.
“My feeling is that people are tired of angry, shouty men with easy solutions and want a serious government with inspiring vision.”