I was wrong to think the Conservatives could conjure up a strong campaign

At the end of May, following the unexpected decision by Rishi Sunak to call the election, I confessed that I had got two things wrong.

First, I didn’t appreciate how quickly Sir Keir Starmer would be able to present Labour as electable again. Second was my prediction for the likely date of the general election.

Now, with less than a week to go until voters give their verdict, it turns out I was wrong about more.

I overestimated the will of the Conservative Party to unite, their historic campaigning strength and the likely policy rabbits they would pull out of hats. For the Tories, the past few weeks have been an utter shambles.

Let me put my head on the block and make a prediction: I believe Labour will have an overall majority of between 150 and 160 seats. There have, of course, been elections in the past when a political party has imploded. In Labour’s case, it was 1983, where the manifesto was described by one former party minister as “the longest suicide note in history”.

This time, there have been divisions in the political landscape. Nigel Farage’s intervention and takeover of Reform UK has undoubtedly split the Conservative vote.

But it is, in the end, also a matter of how catastrophic the Conservative campaign has been. I’ve never seen anything like it. From the moment Rishi Sunak stood in Downing Street, soaked to the skin, with “Things Can Only Get Better” booming over a loudspeaker, all the way to the fiasco of close allies appearing to have used inside knowledge to bet on the likely date of the general election, not to mention Sunak’s personal error in coming back from the D-Day commemorations early… things went from bad to worse.

From Friday, however, two critical paths will have to be navigated.

One will be by Labour in demonstrating that it can deliver an ambitious programme of substantial change, which will require overcoming the even more cautious instincts of the traditional civil service, not least in the Treasury.

The second is which way the Tories decide to rebuild themselves. These will determine whether Labour will gain a crucial second parliamentary term in government.

If the Conservatives can rebuild a credible party with a broad appeal, they may stand a chance of giving the Labour Party a run for its money.

Lord Blunkett served as Labour education secretary (1997-2001), home secretary (2001-04) and work and pensions secretary (2005)