SMALLER PARTIES FEEL THE SQUEEZE

POLL SUPPORT FOR LABOUR AND TORIES RISES IN THE CAPITAL

THE election battle in London tightened dramatically today as an exclusive poll revealed Ukip and the Greens are being squeezed hard between the big parties.

With 37 days left to polling day, Labour’s lead over the Tories has slipped one point, to 11 points, according to the YouGov/Evening Standard survey.

More significantly, Labour and the Conservatives have both increased support at the expense of the smaller parties, Labour is up one point over the past month, to a 45 per cent vote share in the capital.

David Cameron’s party is up two points, to 34 per cent. Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats have also crept up a point, to eight. The biggest loser is Natalie Bennett’s Green Party, down from eight per cent in January to just four per cent now.

It is a severe dent to her hopes of an election breakthrough, and will increase sniping about her public performances, including the infamous “brain fade” interview, when she forgot the detail of her housing policy.

Nigel Farage’s Ukip has fallen from 10 to eight per cent, and are level-pegging with the Lib-Dems in London. If the Ukip decline continues it could throw a lifeline to beleaguered Tories in ultra-marginals

like Croydon central. The headline figures suggest Mr Miliband is on course to pick up seven or eight of his dozen target seats in London — gains he desperately needs to make up for Labour losses in Scotland. However, Labour’s lead is not big enough for Mr Miliband to win a majority at Westminster.

Mr Cameron was boosted by new official figures showing the economy has grown faster than thought. Annual growth last year was 2.8 per cent, up 0.2 per cent from a previous estimate. In the fourth quarter, grow th was revised up from 0.5 to 0.6 per cent.

The Standard’s seat-by-seat analysis of crucial London battlegrounds suggests the squeeze on the small parties could have a major effect on the political map.

A potential bombshell is that Simon Hughes, the second-longest-serving Liberal Democrat MP, is being endangered by the Green slump, putting his Bermondsey and Old Southwark stronghold, which he has represented

‘With the campaign proper under way, voters are starting to pay attention’

Tanya Abraham of YouGov

since 1983, into the danger zone.

The analysis suggests wavering voters are drifting from Green to Labour, giving Mr Miliband’s troops higher hopes of taking a scalp that has long eluded them.

In an even closer race, Conservative Bob Blackman appears to be winning some former Ukip supporters in his battle to defend Harrow East, which is now too close to call.

Tanya Abraham of YouGov said Thursday’s live TV debate could boost the smaller parties. “With the campaign proper under way, voters are starting to pay attention to the election.

“In such a tight election, small movements of votes one way or another could have a dramatic impact. Although backing for the smaller parties is fading slightly, this could change if they make the most of their exposure in this Thursday’s leaders debate.” The Evening Standard analysis suggests:

Labour is ahead in Tory-held Hendon, Enfield North, Brentford and Isleworth, Croydon Central, and Ealing Central and Acton.

Home Office Minister Lynne Featherstone is likely to lose to Labour in Hornsey and Wood Green. Lib-Dems look certain to lose Brent Central.

Conservatives are holding firm in Battersea, Ilford North, and Finchley and Golders Green — seats Labour won in Tony Blair’s best years.