IT’S BONKERS and we love it!
Nerve-shredding drama to the last with seven clubs in Premiership play-off mix ahead of Saturday’s big finale
LET’S do this the opposite way to a school essay, by starting with a conclusion, then explain the ‘working out’. So… drum roll… predicted Premiership semi-finals: Northampton v exeter and Saracens v Bath.
It’s fair to describe that last sentence as educated(ish) guesswork. In truth, nobody knows — not even those with a central role in the chaos. The top division in english rugby is compellingly bonkers and on Saturday the regular season will culminate in epic, nerve-shredding drama.
Five fixtures, all kicking off at 3.05pm — and four of them featuring teams tussling for the play-off places.
Grab any seat left in the stands or find a screen and prepare for the unexpected. This is not a league of logic, which is why any of us daft enough to try forecasting the future tend to end up looking foolish.
Anyway, a bona fide Super Saturday of domestic rugby is in prospect. Providing the conditions don’t lapse back into wet, wintry mode, stand by for tries and tension, twists and turns. Seven clubs are in the mix for a top-four finish and five of them haven’t made it yet, so campaigns which started last October are on a knife- edge going into the final weekend.
Fair play to the scriptwriters for this outlandish scenario.
There aren’t many certainties, but let’s start with those. Northampton have already secured a home semi-final, following their 90-0 annihilation of Gloucester. The Saints will want to finish top, but their play- off at Franklin’s Gardens is assured. Saracens are also through to the knockout phase, but not yet guaranteed a tie at StoneX Stadium.
Bath and Sale are in control of their destinies but face tough assignments. The West Country club host Northampton and, as the league leaders could rest and rotate, there is every chance that Johann van Graan’s side can claim the win that will secure a top-four finish. Finn Russell is fit again, the Rec will be rammed and, with so much to play for, expect a five-point haul to leave them on 60.
Sale’s fate rests on beating Saracens in north London — in a repeat of last year’s final on the other side of the capital, which the Sharks lost 35-25.
Alex Sanderson’s revitalised team could end up as high as second, but they would have to defy form and reputation, as Saracens are back in the groove — as highlighted by recent wins at Bath and Bristol. The champions have end-of-season pedigree, so a home win is most likely.
But… all hope is not quite lost for Sale if they don’t win. Two bonus points in defeat might just be enough for them, on the basis that number of wins is the first factor to determine placings if two teams finish level on league points. In the event of Harlequins winning without a bonus and exeter losing at Leicester, Sale would cling on to fourth place.
That theory relies on Leicester summoning up a defiant display from the ruins of another dire campaign. It is a sign of unusual times that exeter will be clear favourites at Welford Road. That should be taken as an affront to the Tigers’ pride, especially as the visitors will rely on an inexperienced line-up.
If Leicester can equate to the sum of their impressive parts, they can use the quest to qualify for the Champions Cup as motivation and sign off for the summer with a win in front of another large home crowd. But Dan McKellar’s side are in such a sustained slump that exeter should win and score four tries along the way, to finish on 55 points.
That should allow them to edge out Quins for fourth place, even if the Londoners run riot against Bristol — reeling from their chastening home defeat by Saracens — at the Stoop. Billy Millard’s team can also reach 55 points, but one fewer win than the Chiefs would see them miss the cut.
At this stage of spring, on dry pitches, there are tries galore, so bonuses are commonplace. expect plenty of fast-and-loose attacking. Defence coaches will be in hiding. In the latest round of matches, every winning team claimed five league points. That is likely to be the case again on Saturday, certainly in the matches that matter.
Without the spectre of relegation, the Premiership lacks survival jeopardy, so this run-in drama is providing vital edge and interest. Simultaneous kick- offs will heighten the tension and suspense as news filters through of scores elsewhere.
It should be absorbing and agonising. There has been plenty of negativity in english rugby over the last year or two, so this photo finish to the season should be enjoyed and celebrated.