How to stop the next pandemic in its tracks

▶ The US wants governments to take preparation for global health crises more seriously

Mass surprise was an early social symptom of Covid-19 around the globe. From government announcements to work emails, words such as “unprecedented”, “uncertain” and “unforeseen” became the norm, signs of collective bafflement and fear.

While shock was universal, how countries responded differed widely. The world had seen pandemics before. In 2015 Bill Gates gave a popular TED Talk on the impending danger of one. Many countries had emergency plans waiting in the wings. Some quickly swung into action, while others dithered. The UAE’s agile governance allowed it to secure necessities from food security to mass testing. For the nations caught off guard, many of them developed, citizens wondered why no methodical response was forthcoming.

In her book, The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Dangers We Ignore, Michele Wucker discusses why we often fail to respond to probable and severe threats. In an article last year for The National, the best-selling author asked how so many leaders were left desperately looking for policies to control the pandemic, and said Covid-19 should be the moment for an “urgently needed reset of our global mentality”. This week, US Vice President Kamala Harris echoed the view by saying that the response to the virus was “not nearly good enough”, asking major powers to start preparing for the next pandemic. At the moment our biggest priority is fighting a raging health crisis. But Ms Harris is right to encourage leaders to turn today’s reality into permanent lessons.

Success or failure at the outbreak of the pandemic largely depended on the speed at which governments reacted. Taiwan, despite being next door to Covid19’s point of origin, quickly introduced contact tracing and border controls. The response was so effective that the government is yet to impose a lockdown and has only recorded 12 deaths.

Hand-wringing in western nations led to devastating delays. Politicisation continues to cloud the UK’s otherwise improving situation after allegations emerged that Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he would rather allow Covid-19 to “let rip” than see further lockdowns. The EU says it is suing AstraZeneca, a leading vaccine manufacturer, for what it claims to be the company’s contractual failures. Whether true or not, a sluggish and bureaucratic response differs starkly to Britain’s, which, rather than using the public sector to acquire doses, delegated the responsibility to a small taskforce comprising members with private sector experience, a rare but important success for London.

Future plans across the globe should take into account the specific difficulties at various stages of an outbreak. Whether preserving vital supply chains, tackling disinformation, or striking proportionate social controls, preparation will increase the chance of swift responses that do not underestimate, or indeed overestimate future threats.

Covid-19 will be with us for years, but at some point a new grey rhino will charge. This time the world better be prepared.