CAN MIGHTY ERDOGAN BE BEATEN IN ELECTIONS?
▶ Odds favour the Turkish president, but analysts suggest upset is possible
When Turkey heads to the polls on June 24, it will be to decide on its ruler under a new presidential system. Until now, the president’s role has been largely ceremonial, but in a referendum last year, divisive strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan – a former prime minister and the current president – replaced the parliamentary system with an executive presidency.
In the coming vote, Mr Erdogan plans to tighten his stranglehold on the country by being voted into his strengthened role. Is it a done deal? Or could he be toppled from his throne?
Analysts note that Mr Erdogan is approaching the elections from a near-overwhelming position of power. “He has all the competitive advantage any candidate could wish for,” said Ziya Meral, a Turkish-British researcher and writer specialising in Turkish politics. “He was able to call elections at a time when his party and constituency are ready and the political risks that can weaken votes could be contained. He also has the full power of state, and a nationwide state of emergency [in place since a coup attempt in July 2016], as well as dominance over media coverage.”
A new law passed this year allows Turkey’s High Electoral Board to merge electoral districts, move ballot boxes, count unstamped – thus unverified – ballots, and permit security forces to be present at polling stations. Many see this as a way to rig votes, intimidate voters and move ballot boxes away from opposition strongholds.
However, an opposition win is not entirely impossible. The announcement last week that the election was to be moved forward by more than a year and a half caught out the main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP). But by the end of this weekend, they are due to announce their candidate, either independently or as a coalition with the Islamist Felicity Party and centre-right Good Party.
“At the moment, many seem to anticipate a shared candidate that can appeal to all non-AKP and some AKP voters to be the decisive factor,” Mr Meral said. “The only person to fit that bill is former president [Abdullah] Gul.”
Mr Gul, also a former prime minister and a founding member of Mr Erdogan’s AKP party, has met with opposition parties and on Tuesday met former prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu.
The entrance of a strong opposition candidate could make the election closer than many assume. “I really see this election as 50-50,” said Ilhan Tanir, a Turkish journalist based in the US. “Erdogan will do everything he can not to be beaten, but it [would] be very difficult against Abdullah Gul. That is why everyone is now talking about him.
“Despite all the state resources and the unlevel playing field we have been observing, if Abdullah Gul can happen, then yes, [Erdogan] can be beaten.”
Mr Gul has expressed concern at the concentration of power held by his successor, Mr Erdogan, and has repeatedly declined to dispel rumours that he might run, either for a coalition of opposition parties, or for the Islamist Felicity Party. Not only could he attract votes from those who traditionally vote against Mr Erdogan, but also from disaffected AKP voters.
Another strong candidate is Meral Aksener, the leader of the Good Party, which has been brought into play with the help of 15 defecting CHP deputies, giving it enough MPs to form a group in parliament.
With Mr Erdogan at 40 per cent in a recent opinion poll, he too has some work for his coalition with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) to reach the required 51 per cent.
Other factors may turn public opinion against Mr Erdogan: the large number of Syrian migrants packed into often already deprived neighbourhoods, high unemployment, a tanking economy and stagnant wages.
Yet for the opposition to have a chance of winning, they will have to do it without the support of the print, television and radio media, which have been almost entirely co-opted by Erdogan.