KURDISH PRESIDENT WHO OVERPLAYED HIS HAND STILL HAS CHIPS IN THE GAME
▶ Barzani’s independence gambit failed, but stepping down allows him to assess his next move from sidelines
In the end, what should have been a lifeline turned into a noose. Masoud Barzani, president and dominant figure in Kurdish politics in post-Saddam Iraq, could not remain in office after he bungled independence, a goal that defined him.
He is set to remain powerful behind the scenes, undermining democracy in the autonomous government he was instrumental in creating.
On Sunday, Mr Barzani made his first public speech since Iraqi forces rolled into Kirkuk two weeks earlier, prompting the rapid unravelling of Kurdish territorial gains made at the expense of Baghdad since the end of the Second Gulf War. He announced he was stepping down as president.
The loss of Kirkuk, and its oilfields in particular, was the death knell for secession from Iraq, which Mr Barzani had hoped to prompt with an independence referendum on September 25.
That turned Turkey and Iran against the Kurdish region, and the neighbouring countries worked in concert with Iraqi prime minister Haider Al Abadi to prevent a break-up of the country.
The US, a long-time ally of the Kurds, refused to go to their aid, also committed to the territorial integrity of Iraq.
Mr Barzani had miscalculated the reaction from abroad, and had hoped to exploit the perceived weakness of the Iraqi state after three years of war against ISIL.
The Iraqi Kurd president had staked his political future on carving a Kurdish state out of northern Iraq. Unwilling to relinquish power, he felt he had little choice but to raise the ante.
Presidents of the Kurdistan Regional Government are supposed to serve for two terms and his second expired in 2013. He managed to convince the Kurdish parliament, which is dominated by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) he heads, to extend his term by two years.
When this expired he stayed on, extinguishing any democratic legitimacy for his rule. To compensate, he fanned the flames of Kurdish nationalism by promising independence.
After the referendum, it was clear Mr Barzani had gambled too much of his political capital on one card and lost.
Losing a game of such high stakes has cost him and the Kurds dearly. It is not only that they have been stripped of key territory.
The aftermath of the referendum has also deepened the rift between the KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), the other political powerhouse in the Kurdish region.
Reluctant to go ahead with the plebiscite, but unable to resist its patriotic appeal, the PUK cut a deal with Baghdad to allow Iraqi troops into Kirkuk.
The fallout will strain the relationship of the two main Kurdish parties for years to come.
They fought each other in a civil war in the 1990s, which ended after Mr Barzani invited Saddam Hussein’s troops into the Kurdish region to stave off defeat. There are no guarantees that history will not repeat itself.
Political stasis is evident. Hopes that Mr Barzani’s retirement would reform the ossified power structures of the KRG, kept in place by patronage networks and intimidation, were dashed even before the president said he was stepping down.
Presidential and parliamentary elections hastily announced after the referendum were just as hastily postponed indefinitely after the loss of Kirkuk, leaving the Kurdish region leaderless and with a parliament whose mandate has long expired.
In his abdication speech, Mr Barzani said that in the absence of a successor, presidential powers would be divided between prime minister Nechirvan Barzani, his nephew, a KDP-dominated parliament, and the judiciary.
He was at great pains to emphasise that he was not retiring from politics, and would continue his struggle for independence.
By stepping down, Mr Barzani has taken himself out of the firing line, but not before undermining the KRG’s institutions sufficiently to be able to rule behind the scenes.
Although no longer president, he will preside over the rubble of Kurdish democracy, clinging to the shattered dream of independence.
The independence vote did not sit well with Iraq and global powers, but it demonstrated that Kurds believed in their future – and their president