NEXT: PANDEMIC OF THE UNVACCINATED
With nearly 8 in 10 people globally yet to get the first dose and the delta variant spreading rapidly, resuming travel could spell doom |
If you’ve had your double dose of Covid vaccines, and perhaps even a “booster” shot, you’re extremely lucky — 98.9 per cent of people in less-developed countries have yet to get even their first shot.
Today, there’s solid proof that approved coronavirus jabs are safe and effective. Vaccines embody human advancement. Various clinical data sets show vaccines help prevent severe infections.
Giant scientific strides
More than 18 months since the pandemic first erupted, experts and clinicians’ understanding about the threat has advanced tremendously. There are today at least 19 COVID vaccines approved.
Moreover, there are monoclonal antibody (Mab) therapies proven to help patients from age 12 and above who had encountered severe COVID, the same drug given to Donald Trump, and which he later trumpeted as a Covid-19 “cure”. Also, antiviral drugs, as well as the gamechanging dexamethasone, have become part of standard care of Covid-19 patients.
Vaccines vs vaccinations
Vaccines have advanced much, with some countries achieving high levels of inoculation against SARS-CoV-2. But vaccines do not solve a pandemic; rather, it’s vaccinations. The world now faces a huge challenge: only 1.1 per cent of people in less-developed countries have received even their first shot.
A powerful anti-vax lobby hyperactive on social media embodies human folly. Combined with the highly transmissible Delta variant, this folly turns into a double punch. Add to that the uneven distribution of vaccines — 78 per cent of the world is yet to get even the first dose — is yet another serious challenge.
The pandemic response, so far, has been defined by and within national borders. The virus, however, knows no bounds. Given the “pan” — all — nature of the threat (“demos” is Greek for people), the WHO has warned that only an immediate collective action, and avoidance of risk of transmission, will decide our future.
Yet, at the moment, given the “triple whammy” hammering the world, getting to the desired future seems an insurmountable task.
The ‘triple whammy’
In the face of this “triple whammy” — the growing power of the anti-vax camp, viral mutation and vaccine shortfalls in less developed countries — could end up dulling our edge over the virus.
Consider the following:
On July 27, Only 13.8 per cent of the world is fully vaccinated, according Our World in Data.
Most of them belong to the 10 countries that have roped in more than 70 per cent of the Covid-19 shots. 27.2 per cent of the world population has already received at least one dose of the vaccine.
32.03 million are now administered each day.
What do scientists say about the implication of these numbers?
Scientists and doctors are convinced vaccinations are the only way out of the coronavirus pandemic. In the US, in particular, they were vehement in the criticism of people who refuse vaccinations and the general vaccine hesitancy after data showed that 99 per cent of deaths last month had been among unvaccinated Americans. “I think one can make a reasonable assumption, based on the level of virus in the nasopharynx, that it would be less likely that that vaccinated breakthrough person would transmit compared to an unvaccinated person,” added Anthony Fauci, director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the chief medical adviser to the president.
What’s the lowdown on the threats to unvaccinated people?
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported on Friday that more than 97 per cent of people hospitalised with Covid-19 hadn’t received vaccines. The US is now dealing with a “pandemic of the unvaccinated”, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said.
“Our biggest concern is we are going to continue to see preventable cases, hospitalisations and sadly deaths among the unvaccinated. We are seeing outbreaks of cases in parts of the country that have low vaccination coverage because unvaccinated people are at risk, and communities that are fully vaccinated are generally faring well,” Walensky said.
Only around 150 of the more than 18,000 Covid-19 deaths in May were of fully vaccinated people. That is about 0.8 per day, or five deaths per day on average. “Each Covid-19 death is tragic, and those happening now are even more tragic because they are preventable,” said Jeff Zients, the White House Covid-19 response coordinator.
Experts worry that unvaccinated people could become “variant factories” since variants evolve in the body of a person infected with the coronavirus. If there are fewer infections, the chances of mutants are also less.
“Unvaccinated people are potential variant factories,” William Schaffner, a professor in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told CNN. “The more unvaccinated people there are, the more opportunities for the virus to multiply,” he added.
Why is access to vaccines a major issue?
For much of the world, Covid-19 vaccination is a mirage. When a country like Australia struggles to inoculate its residents and have resorted to lockdowns to keep out the virus, the underdeveloped countries have no hope of achieving herd immunity through vaccinations any time soon. Vaccine alliances like Gavi and Novax have been working to supply vaccines to less-affluent countries, but there’s still a long way to go. Wealthy nations, on the other hand, should be able to reach herd immunity faster if they can overcome vaccine hesitancy. Some countries that high vaccination rates would emerge from the pandemic sooner.
When will the whole world get vaccinated?
At the current pace of immunisation, it will take until the middle of next year to achieve a high level of global immunity and bring the pandemic under control, a Bloomberg report said. With more research and a greater understanding of the coronavirus and its variants, the vaccines can only get better.
There’s lingering concern: even if the world manages to end the pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 will become endemic, possibly with more mutations every year. Much like flu and viral fever. That would mean newer and improved versions of the vaccines each year. So an annual Covid-19 shot could well be the reality. A return to normal could be at least another year away. So it’s not yet time to ditch the mask.