Signs emerge of break in Lebanon deadlock
HARIRI HOPES NEW GOVERNMENT WILL BE FORMED WITHIN DAYS
Lebanon has been without a government since May’s parliamentary elections, as politicians argue over the formation of a powersharing cabinet.
However, this week there have been signs of a break in the deadlock, with numerous politicians voicing concern over the threat of a looming economic crisis.
Prime Minister-designate Sa’ad Hariri said all sides had made concessions in the talks and he hoped the new government would be formed after President Michel Aoun returns from a trip abroad. Aoun is expected to come back today.
Meanwhile, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), charged with investigating the 2005 murder of former premier Rafik Hariri, is expected to issue its final verdict before year end. According to preliminary reports, four members of the militant group Hezbollah will be indicted by name — something that should be music to the ears of the assassinated premier’s son, Sa’ad Hariri, who has demanded justice for his father and the 21 others killed in a blast on February 14, 2005.
But those familiar with the talks currently under way in Beirut have told Gulf News that despite his emotional commitment to the truth, Hariri wouldn’t mind if the verdict gets delayed — at least for now — so that he can save his still-to-be-formed cabinet from immediate collapse. “Hariri simply won’t give much weight to [the tribunal’s] outcome,” Lebanese analyst Mikhael Awad told Gulf News. “Neither the prime minister nor Hezbollah will take the verdict seriously now.”
Fadi Akoum, a prominent analyst, said: “If the verdict is issued before the cabinet is formed, it will somewhat delay the cabinet formation, but the crisis will pass, just like others.” Hariri has no control of the STL outcome, he added, noting that if it were up to him, he would have preferred postponement “so as not to be seen as partnering in government with those who killed his father”.
Hariri simply won’t give much weight to [the tribunal’s] outcome. Neither the prime minister nor Hezbollah will take the verdict seriously now.” Mikhael Awad | Lebanese analyst talking to Gulf News
In 2016, Hariri reached a deal with Hezbollah, bringing their ageing ally Aoun to the presidency, on the condition that he returns to the premiership, from which he had been ejected back in January 2011 by Hezbollah.
Yesterday, one of Lebanon’s leading newspapers printed a blank issue to protest the country’s long-running political gridlock and the failure to form a government five months after elections. “We are ringing the alarm bells,” Nayla Tueni, editor-in-chief of An Nahar daily, said. The issue consisted of eight blank pages.
Lebanon Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said on Wednesday that some saw “a positive, promising atmosphere” in talks on forming a new government and that his office was engaged in contacts on the issue.
Indeed, this week there have been signs of a break in the deadlock, which has existed since last May, when Lebanon held parliamentary elections. One of the stumbling blocks in the talks was expected to be the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), charged with investigating the 2005 murder of former prime minister Rafik Hariri. The STL is expected to issue its final verdict before year’s end.
According to preliminary reports, four Hezbollah members will be indicted by name — something that should be music to prime minister-designate Sa’ad Hariri’s ears, as he had put his weight behind its launch in March 2009, demanding “justice” for his father and the 21 others killed in February 2005.
If Hezbollah figures are proven guilty of the assassination, all political understanding now underway between him and Hezbollah might be threatened.
But those familiar with the talks currently underway in Beirut have told Gulf News that despite his emotional commitment to the truth, Hariri wouldn’t mind if it the verdict gets delayed — at least for now — so that he can save his would-be cabinet from immediate collapse.
“Hariri simply won’t give much weight to [the tribunal’s] outcome,” Lebanese analyst Mikhael Awad told Gulf News. “Neither the prime minister nor Hezbollah will take the verdict seriously now.”
Lebanon has been without a government since May’s parliamentary elections. Yesterday, the leading An Nahar newspaper printed a blank issue to protest the political gridlock.
‘Crisis will pass’
Fadi Akoum, a prominent analyst, said: “If the verdict is issued before the cabinet is formed, it will somewhat delay cabinet formation, but the crisis will pass, just like others.”
Hariri has no control of the STL outcomes, he added, noting that if it were up to him, he would have preferred postponement “so as not to be seen as partnering in government with those who killed his father”.
In 2016, Hariri reached a deal with Hezbollah, bringing their ageing ally Michel Aoun to the presidency, on the condition that he returns to the premiership, from which he had been ejected from in 2011, via Hezbollah.
After last May’s parliamentary election, Hezbollah demanded that it gets 1-2 ministers for its Sunni allies in parliament, known as the Sunni Opposition. Hariri refused, seeking to keep Sunni representation in the hands of his Future Movement party.
Hezbollah then caved in, watering down its conditions. In return, Hariri offered to compensat them with the Ministry of Health, currently in the hands of a Christian grouping, the Lebanese Forces. Hezbollah refused, fearing automatic US sanctions on the health sector.
The group is now earmarked to keep two posts it has held since 2016, Industry and Sports, while its allies in the Amal movement will still be getting the Agriculture, Finance, and State Development portfolios.
Hariri is suggesting six seats for the Shiite bloc, rather than five, thus putting them on equal footing with the bloc of his Future Movement.
In return, they have talked their ally, Aoun, into giving up on the post of deputy prime minister, which Hariri’s Lebanese Forces allies want.