Idlib civilians tremble as assault looms
UN WARNS OF ‘PERFECT STORM’ AS RUSSIAN NAVAL FLOTILLA GETS READY TO INTERVENE
On land, the Syrian regime is mustering thousands of conscripts to bolster its depleted forces. At sea, a Russian naval flotilla is just offshore, ready to intervene with formidable firepower. In Idlib province, millions of civilians are dreading what comes next.
The adversaries in Syria’s long and merciless civil war are preparing for another brutal offensive, and this one may be the last.
The looming assault on Idlib province is the one the regime in Damascus hopes will deliver the final military blow against the rebel fighters and their civilian supporters who rose up more than seven years ago demanding regime change.
Where Syria and its Russian and Iranian allies see a chance to crush the remaining opposition, Western leaders warn of a humanitarian calamity in Idlib, where an estimated three million civilians live.
Many of the non-combatants now in Idlib fled there from other parts of Syria, escaping the brutality of the regime forces of Bashar Al Assad.
Tens of thousands were bused there as part of surrender deals with the regime.
The impending regime offensive against what are believed to be about 30,000 rebel fighters is a “perfect storm coming up in front of our eyes,” said Staffan de Mistura, the United Nations special envoy to Syria.
Turkey, too, is expressing grave concern about an attack, worried it will bear the brunt of the humanitarian and security fallout.
The country has troops in Idlib, with the aim of separating Syrian and rebel forces, and its soldiers could be caught in the middle of an attack. Turkey is hosting more than three million refugees from the civil war, and with an economic crisis and growing resentment against those Syrians already in the country, it does not want any more.
Disaster
On a recent visit to Moscow, the country’s foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, called for more time for a Turkish plan to negotiate with the rebels in Idlib, including radical groups.
“A military solution there would be a disaster,” Cavusoglu said at a news conference, standing beside Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov.
“Attacking the whole of Idlib to eliminate some radical groups would mean causing the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people and making 3.5 million people leave their homes one more time,” Cavusoglu added.
Over the last two years, the Syrian regime’s army, with significant help from Russia and Iran, has regained control over large areas. With much of the country now back in its grip, the regime can turn its attention to Idlib.
If the regime were to retake the province, the last major rebel stronghold, the victory would essentially end large-scale, armed opposition within Syria. But it would hardly signal the end of the conflict or its miseries.
The US State Department on Friday warned in a statement that “the United States will respond to any chemical weapons attack perpetrated by the Syrian regime.” Despite these international pleas, Syrian and Russian officials over the weekend were openly preparing to oust the formidable rebel forces in the province.
Syria’s deputy prime minister, Walid Mua’alem, said in an interview with Russian television on Saturday that capturing Idlib was a priority, given the widespread presence of “terrorists” there, a reference to the Islamist fighting groups, including Syria’s strongest rebel faction, Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, or HTS, which is affiliated with Al Qaida.
While the regime has yet to declare a start date for an offensive, its army has deployed thousands of ground forces and dozens of armoured units along the southern borders of Idlib.