Violent street protests in Iraq could cost Al Abadi his job
EARLIER THERE WAS SPECULATION HE MIGHT RETAIN HIS POSITION IN A COALITION GOVERNMENT
Sustained protests in Iraq’s Shiite heartland this summer have dimmed the prospects that the nation’s staunchly pro-American prime minister will wrest a second term, with demonstrators channelling their frustrations over poor basic services into a sweeping condemnation of his leadership.
The protests, which have morphed from chaotic and sometimes violent marches into daily sit-ins, have prompted powerful religious and political figures to zero-in on Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi as the source of Iraq’s many troubles. This could cost him another term, despite his widely acclaimed successes last year in leading the Iraqi government to victory over Daesh and firmly turning back a Kurdish bid for independence.
While his ticket performed poorly in national elections this spring, finishing far behind that of firebrand Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr, political observers had speculated Al Abadi might retain his position in a coalition government.
Instead, the mounting popular discontent has dealt him an abrupt setback. For the United States, this recent turn exposes a weakness in a strategy that centred on supporting Al Abadi in the hope that his message of anti-sectarian nationalism would translate into a new era of Iraqi politics.
If Al Abadi fails to secure a second term, the United States faces the prospect of a new Iraqi administration that is less sympathetic to Washington and more open to Iran at a time when President Trump has applied economic sanctions on Tehran and threatened military action.
Both Al Sadr and Hadi Al Amiri, a Shiite militia leader whose ticket finished second in the elections, have a long history of opposing US forces and consider American involvement in Iraq as a continuation of the 2003 occupation. While Al Sadr has publicly opposed Iranian influence in Iraq and the region, Al Amiri has benefited from Iranian military and financial support.
Ahead of national elections in May, Al Abadi was largely seen as the front-runner owing to his stewardship of the country as Iraq fought to reclaim territory lost to Daesh and navigated an economic crisis driven by plunging oil prices.
But in an election that saw a historically low voter participation of 44 per cent, Al Abadi’s once muscular position was severely diminished. The election results are undergoing a full recount stemming from evidence of widespread irregularities and accusations of fraud, but the tally is not expected to significantly alter the original result.
The nearly three-month delay in certifying the election has contributed to the mounting criticism of Al Abadi and has weakened his bid for another term as the winning political blocs negotiate over the formation of a new government.
Al Abadi’s electoral ticket is no longer seen as an essential partner to the two emerging power centres: Al Sadr’s majority bloc, and Al Amiri’s bloc, according to a leading official close to coalition talks.
Relegated to minority
At first, Al Sadr said he would support Al Abadi to lead the new government. Last week, however, as street protests continued, Al Sadr outlined a set of conditions that spoke to the demands of demonstrators for change. In part, Al Sadr said the new prime minister should be an independent who has not held elected office. That stipulation alone would eliminate Al Abadi from contention.
It followed an earlier swipe from the country’s highest Shiite religious authority, the influential Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani. During a recent televised Friday sermon, watched by millions, a representative of the reclusive ayatollah defended the protesters and said their demands were legitimate. That critique was largely seen as a rare rebuke of Al Abadi by the religious establishment, which had supported him during his term, and revived the earlier criticism that he was weak.
A leading official close to the negotiations, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks, said Al Abadi’s electoral ticket is no longer seen as an essential partner to the two emerging power centres: Al Sadr’s bloc and Al Amiri’s bloc.
Al Abadi’s ticket has been relegated to the same minority status as Kurdish and Sunni parties, which are viewed as secondary partners in forming a government, the official said.
In addition, a new name has emerged as a potential successor to Al Abadi from within his own Dawa party, Tarek Najm, a former chief of staff for Al Maliki, the official said.