Deadlock deepens as political turmoil rocks Catalonia
The industrial region stumbles towards fresh elections
Spain’s political deadlock deepened as the industrial region of Catalonia stumbled towards fresh elections, adding to an existing impasse over the formation of a new national government.
Barcelona followed Madrid into uncertainty on Sunday as acting Catalan President Artur Mas failed to win support from the anti-capitalist CUP party for his bid to piece together a regional government dedicated to independence from Spain.
That raises the likelihood of early elections in March in a region that accounts for about 20 percent of Spain’s output.
Catalonia descended into further instability just as political leaders in Madrid struggle to chart a path out of the deadlock left by last month’s general elections that saw two insurgent groups vying with the established blocs with the result that no one party or constellation of potential allies holds a clear majority.
The political mix, already complicated by national party leaders lining up on either side of the Catalan independence debate, is still harder to predict with the collapse of efforts to form a regional government.
“It’s anyone’s guess what will happen now” in Catalonia, Angel Talavera, an analyst at Oxford Economics in London, said by phone on Monday. The most probable scenario at national level is new elections, he said, since “there is no alliance possible.” Spanish leaders are trying to find their place in an upturned political landscape after Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy lost his overall majority in the Dec. 20 election.
The main opposition Socialists also lost backing as voters turned to emerging parties such as the anti-austerity group Podemos, which picked up votes in Catalonia by pledging support for an independence referendum.
Rajoy, whose People’s Party took the most seats, has said he wants to build a broad-based government to defend economic growth and safeguard Spain’s national integrity in the face of Mas’s demands for independence.
The revenue raised from the 7.5 million Catalans is critical to the Spanish state’s ability to fund schools and hospitals, pay pensions and service its debt. The region transfers 8.5 billion euros ($9.3 billion) a year to the rest of Spain, according to a July study for the Spanish Budget Ministry, equivalent to 25 percent of the national budget for interest payments last year. The Catalan government estimates the net tax transfer is as much as 16.4 billion euros.
The failure of Mas’s bid to create a separatist regional administration should in theory make the task facing Rajoy or whoever leads the new national government easier, said Talavera.