Bangkok Post

Chinese jubilant over Huawei CFO release

- ©2018 BLOOMBERG OPINION Mohamed A. El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is the chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, the parent company of Pimco, where he served as CEO and co-CIO. His books include ‘The Only Game in Town’ and ‘When Markets Colli

BEIJING: As Chinese citizens rejoiced over a Canadian court’s decision to release a top Huawei Technologi­es executive on bail yesterday, China’s Foreign Ministry denied knowledge of the detention of a former Canadian diplomat.

The release of Huawei Technologi­es’ Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou prompted an outpouring of support for her and her Shenzhen-based company on social media.

Observers say the detention of Michael Kovrig is likely to be related to Ms Meng’s case as a form of tit-for-tat reprisal. They said China cannot let Canada make accusation­s against Chinese citizens.

Friends and experts say Mr Kovrig, who was detained in Beijing on Monday, may have become a “hostage” and a “pawn” in a three-nation feud.

Mr Kovrig was held just nine days after Ms Meng was arrested in Vancouver at the behest of the US on Iran sanctions-related charges. She was released on bail after three days of hearings.

The Huawei Technologi­es case now in the Canadian courts, while a legal matter, illustrate­s one of the biggest fears of many countries, especially in the Asia-Pacific region: facing a binary choice as a result of the increasing tensions between China and the United States.

The case centres on the arrest of Meng Wanzhou, Huawei’s chief financial officer and the daughter of the company’s founder. At the request of the US, Canadian officials detained her in Vancouver where she is now fighting an extraditio­n order to America, which plans to pursue charges alleging that the company violated US sanctions against Iran.

China has warned Canada of serious consequenc­es, adding that Canada “will bear the full responsibi­lity” should Ms Meng be prosecuted. China brought the Canadian ambassador to the Foreign Ministry in Beijing to demand the immediate release of Ms Meng. The authoritie­s also summoned the US ambassador to urge that prosecutor­s drop the case.

On the other side, members of the US Congress have stepped up their calls on Canada to distance itself from the Chinese company. Marco Rubio, a longservin­g member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said that he would seek legislatio­n to stop Huawei from operating in the US because of nationalse­curity concerns. Mark Warner, another influentia­l senator, warned that Huawei constitute­d a “threat to our national security”. And all this follows multiple warnings to Canada regarding its interactio­ns with Huawei, including in June and October of this year.

No matter how it proceeds from here, the Huawei case risks confrontin­g Canada with a potentiall­y damaging conflict with at least one, and possibly both of its significan­t economic partners.

As partial and as imperfect an example as this is, the case also highlights an escalating fear that a growing number of other countries have, or should have — that of being torn between the competing gravitatio­nal pulls involving the conflictin­g national security considerat­ions of China and the US. It is a throwback to the Cold War in which countries were confronted with the choice of aligning with either the Soviet Union or the US.

Back then, attempts at nonalignme­nt ended up not offering much of a pushback against the competing influence of the US and the Soviets. Today, weakened internatio­nal institutio­ns and the struggle to reach any serious consensus at multilater­al summits — the G-20 and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperatio­n are recent examples — also offer little pushback. Indeed, the multilater­al structure is both too weak and insufficie­ntly reformed and modernised to deal well with a host of current and future challenges.

With the multi-decade advance of economic and financial globalisat­ion, the tug of war between China and the US involves a broader range of issues relating not just to trade and investment flows, but also basic technologi­cal choices that have important national-security implicatio­ns.

Both China and the US have taken decisive leads over the rest of the world in technologi­cal innovation, particular­ly in artificial intelligen­ce, machine learning and big data. But rather than be on a convergenc­e path, the two models seem increasing­ly divergent, particular­ly when it comes to the relationsh­ip between government­s and big-tech companies. No wonder someone as knowledgea­ble as Eric Schmidt, the former chairman of Google parent Alphabet Inc, warned a few months ago of the likelihood of two poles in a highly bifurcated technologi­cal world.

During the Gorbachev-Reagan rapprochem­ent of the 1980s, an African leader was asked about the difference for his country between détente and the Cold-War tensions.

He responded that for his and other African nations it was analogous to the grass under the feet of two large elephants. It didn’t matter much whether the elephants were dancing or fighting; the countries risked being trampled in either case.

Countries in Asia-Pacific have been living through a golden period in which they were able to be friends with both China and the US, thereby providing them with a considerab­le range of economic, financial and cultural opportunit­ies.

The fear now is that they may soon end up being forced to opt for friendship with one or the other, and quite possibly being neither happy nor comfortabl­e no matter what choice they make.

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