Russia is teetering on the brink of war with Ukraine
Military vehicles and soldiers paraded through Kiev on Wednesday, marking Ukraine’s 25th anniversary as an independent state. But at a time that should otherwise be a moment of national celebration, a serious crisis has been unfolding. So serious, in fact, that on Tuesday Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande were forced to hold a three-way phone call to try to de-escalate the situation. Ukrainian Prime Minister Petro Poroshenko has warned there is growing risk of a “full scale Russian invasion along all fronts”, ratcheting up what is already the bloodiest European conflict since the wars over the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s.
The uptick in tensions coincides with a visit last Friday by Mr Putin to Crimea, annexed by Moscow in 2014. Russia’s assertion last week that Kiev attempted an armed incursion into Crimea, plus the death of three Ukrainian soldiers, has escalated the situation further. In total, the 28-month crisis between the two countries has claimed an estimated 9,500 lives and more than a million people have fled their homes. The Ukrainian economy is in the doldrums, with foreign exchange reserves depleted and the government seeking to rejuvenate a $17.5bn (about 605 billion baht) Western-led economic bailout deal.
With the increasing possibility of what Mr Hollande has called “total war”, alarm is growing — not least within France and Germany, the two countries which helped broker the February 2015 Minsk agreement. Under that deal, both sides agreed to measures including an immediate, full bilateral ceasefire and the withdrawal of heavy weapons from Donetsk and Luhansk, where fighting since 2014 has seen separatists seize significant portions of the regions, raising international fears about the viability of the Ukrainian state.
In the immediate term, and despite recent rhetoric, it is unlikely there will be any decisive actions in advance of the G20 summit in China next month. And the Pentagon has poured cold water on the idea that Moscow might be preparing an imminent invasion, asserting that the build-up of Russian troops on the border is part of an annual military exercise.
Moving into the autumn, whether tensions escalate or subside will probably depend most upon the political calculus of Russia. Previously, Moscow had hoped that sustained economic, military and political pressure could lead to significant loss of support within Ukraine for its proWestern Kiev government. That scenario has not fully come to pass yet, however, and it is unclear what the risk tolerance of the Russian leadership now is, especially given that Mr Putin is up for re-election in March 2018 for a new six year term as president. In the last few days, he has called for “common sense to prevail” and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov insists that Moscow remains committed to the Minsk agreement.
If tensions rise further this autumn, it could prompt a new debate over international military support for Mr Poroshenko’s government, which has claimed it may need to impose martial law and mobilise reserve troops soon. Enhanced military aid was raised at the Nato summit last month, where the organisation recalibrated its capability to respond to what is perceived as an enhanced Russian security threat — not just to Ukraine, but also other countries too, including the Baltic states. It may also re-open discussions in Washington over military support for Kiev. Prior to the announcement of the Minsk deal last year, US Defence Secretary Ash Carter asserted his preference of providing enhanced military assistance to Ukraine, and there are pockets of strong support in Congress for providing such support, including from Senator John McCain, Chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
However, some key figures in Europe are concerned that provision of equipment could be used by Ukraine not just to secure military balance on the ground but as a means to achieve more risky military goals. Ms Merkel has repeatedly said that there is no military solution to the conflict. She particularly fears that, given current mistrust with Moscow, providing extensive weaponry to Ukraine will only intensify the conflict which could risk becoming a proxy war between Russia and the wider West.
As international diplomatic activity ramps up, the crisis is on the brink of spiralling out of control again, with significant effects many miles from the streets of Kiev.