A world of opinions on row

Nations contemplate China’s reaction to historic marine ruling

Acase brought by US ally the Philippines against China represents a diplomatic dilemma for far-flung nations. Ahead of a ruling today, Washington and Beijing have rallied support for their respective positions on the use of international arbitration in South China Sea disputes.

The United States has been building diplomatic pressure in the West and in Asia on China to abide by the decision by a tribunal in The Hague, Netherlands. China, which maintains it won’t be bound by the ruling, has been pushing back by building support from nations mostly in Africa and the Middle East.

The US is not a party to the South China Sea territorial disputes, nor to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, under which the tribunal has been formed, but says it wants China to play by international rules. Because there is no enforcement mechanism for the ruling, any impact will depend on how the international community reacts.

Here’s a look at where dozens of countries stand:

ASEAN

Asean has been trying for years to achieve diplomatic solutions in the South China Sea, making little progress and exposing divisions in the 10-member bloc, which includes the Philippines. It is unlikely to reach consensus on the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling.

When US President Barack Obama met Asean leaders in February they agreed on “full respect for legal and diplomatic processes” in accordance with the UN convention. But Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen said in late June he opposes any Asean declaration to support the tribunal’s decision and efforts by countries outside the region “to mobilise forces against China”.

Vietnam, which has fought China over competing South China Sea claims, has been most supportive of the Philippines’ case and submitted a statement to the tribunal. Hanoi has said it supports “full compliance” to the procedures of the convention. But other Asean nations are generally wary of speaking out for fear of alienating China, the region’s economic heavyweight.

Malaysia and Brunei have said little about the case, though they too are South China Sea claimants.

Indonesia and Singapore are not claimants but have been a bit more outspoken. Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said last month that the ruling could have implications beyond the South China Sea and “we cannot subscribe to the principle that might is right”.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo has underscored his commitment to protect Indonesian sovereignty over its Natuna Islands at the edge of the South China Sea, where he flew last month after the Indonesian navy detained a Chinese fishing boat and arrested a group of Chinese fishermen. His Foreign Ministry has declined to say whether the ruling should be binding on both sides but says international law must be respected.

Even the Philippines’ position is unpredictable as a new government has just taken office. President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has expressed willingness to restart bilateral negotiations with China.

RUSSIA

Moscow, which shares China’s suspicion of Washington, is Beijing’s most prominent supporter on the issue although it has not explicitly said how it will respond to the tribunal’s ruling.

On a visit to China in April, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia is against any interference from outside parties in the South China Sea, a reference to the US, “or any attempts to internationalise these disputes”. Like China, Russia says disputes should be resolved through talks between the parties directly involved.

AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST

China’s state media has reported that about 60 countries have expressed support for China’s stance on the arbitration case. The Foreign Ministry has in recent weeks given prominent mention to support it claims to have from nations principally in Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia. But relatively few of those foreign governments have issued statements independently.

Some, including Fiji and Nato’s Slovenia, have disavowed China’s description of their position. The Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington said it could confirm statements from Afghanistan, Gambia, Kenya, Lesotho, Niger, Sudan, Togo and Vanuatu.

EUROPEAN UNION, G7

The EU has urged all South China Sea claimants to resolve disputes through peaceful means and “pursue them in accordance with international law”, including the UN convention. The Group of Seven wealthy nations, which comprises Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the US and the EU, has called on all states to fully implement decisions binding on them in courts and tribunals provided under the convention.

In June, French Defence Minister JeanYves Le Drian proposed that European navies coordinate patrols in Asian waters to reinforce a rules-based maritime order. He warned if the laws of the sea are not respected, they could also be challenged in the Arctic Ocean or Mediterranean.

JAPAN

Japan was an early supporter of the Philippines’ pursuit of arbitration and says both China and the Philippines should abide by the outcome.

Japan sees that as upholding international law, but it also reflects concern that historic rival China seeks strategic control of vital sea lanes in the South China Sea that carry 80% of Japan’s crude oil imports. Japan’s support of third-party dispute resolution is not universal.

While it has sought to take its dispute with South Korea over the South Koreanheld Dokdo or Takeshima islands to the International Court of Justice, it says no such action is needed in its dispute with China over the Senkaku, or Diaoyu, islands, which are administered by Japan.

SOUTH KOREA

Like Japan, South Korea is heavily dependent on fuel imports that pass through the South China Sea, but it has closer ties with China and has been less inclined to speak out.

The Foreign Ministry says South China Sea disputes should be resolved under internationally established regulations and that it is “looking with interest” at the Philippines-China arbitration case.

TAIWAN

Taiwan has complained that the tribunal has not solicited its views. While Taipei officially exercises the same nine-dash line claim as Beijing in the South China Sea, it is primarily concerned about Taiping island in the Spratlys. Taiwan administers that remote land feature and is concerned it could be designated as a rock without the rights granted to islands.