Results of presidential election determined well before nominations

When one looks back at the presidential election campaign of November 2019 and the five years of Yahapalana governance it is not too difficult to understand why the Maithripala Sirisena-Ranil Wickremesinghe government was defeated and Gotabaya Rajapakse elected President.

It would not be wrong to say that the Yahapalana Government’s defeat was ensured long before nominations were called for the presidential election. The campaign strategy was planned out with almost military precision and set in motion within one month of the defeat of the Mahinda Rajapakse presidency.

The first step in this direction was the Mahinda Sulanga meeting held in Nugegoda in February 2015 just one month after the defeat of the Rajapaksa Government in January 2015.

Thereafter the Joint Opposition kept on a relentless campaign designed to undermine the Yahapalana Government and eventually capture power. Every trick in the book was used including strikes, protests, creating insecurities in the minds of the Sinhalese Buddhists by projecting a picture of the minorities seeking to overpower the majority community as well as the allegation that the Yahapalana Government not having any qualms in undermining the sovereignity of the country.

With two weeks of the assumption of office of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa the UNP led Opposition shows no sign of regrouping and following the example of the SLPP. It seems to be concentrating all its energies on leadership issues rather than diagnosing what went wrong and taking corrective measures. The SLPP (or Joint Opposition as it was then called) did not engage in finger pointing and squabbling among themselves after their defeat in January 2015 but immediately got down to the business of winning back power.

While the current Opposition should not resort to dirty tricks it has a duty by the people and the country to function as a strong and vigilant Opposition that safeguards the interests of the public.

One of the most successful strategies used by the SLPP was to create insecurity among the majority Sinhala

Buddhists and then playing on such insecurities to win over the voter. When one listens to the views expressed by several Sinhala Buddhists as well as members of the Buddhist clergy it is very apparent that many had fallen prey to the propaganda dished out by racist elements and genuinely believed that there was a threat to Buddhists and Sinhalese. In politics perception is as important as reality, because people tend to act on perceptions. Even if those perceptions are not real the average voter may not have the capacity to sift the truth from falsehood.

The UNP led alliance hardly made any attempts to dispel such fears among the populace and consequently were unable to make any inroads to the votes that the SLPP had gathered over a period of time. Even the results of the local government polls of 2018 did not serve as a heads up to galvanise the UNP and its allies into action.

The Sinhala voter is not innately communal. The results of elections over the past several decades confirms this. Communal parties from the Sinhala Buddhist community have been repeatedly rejected by the electorate. Although Sinhala Buddhist consciousness has come to the fore more recently as a result of politically promoted agendas the ordinary citizen still has no designs of stifling the minorities and does have a great sense of justice and fairplay.

The Yahapalana Government did have many achievements to its credit including the strengthening of democracy through the 19th amendment and the setting up of the independent commissions. Media freedom flourished and the Police and the judiciary began to assert their independence which was facilitated by the hands off approach of the Yahapalana Government.

There were other progressive steps taken like the Suraksha Insurance scheme, the Suva Sariya or the free ambulance services and reduced drug prices to name a few.

But a woefully inadequate communication strategy of the Yahapalana Government prevented them from reaping electoral benefits from their own achievements.

The private media too played a lead role in influencing the electorate in favour of the Pohottuwa camp. To the credit of the UNP it did not attempt to curb the freedom of the Press to prevent the media acting in this manner.

But it made the cardinal mistake of not developing a democratic strategy to counter the advantage that the SLPP had as a result of the backing that the private media conferred on it.

There were many issues staring in the face of the UNP which could have been utilised before and during the election campaign. The findings of the presidential commission appointed to inquire into allegations of corruption under pre-2015 administration of Mahinda Rajapaksa were not made public.

Many of those against whom findings were reported to have been made were very much in the forefront of the Gotabaya Rajapaksa presidential election campaign. So were those who engaged in unparlamentary behaviour during the days that followed the constitutional coup of October 2018. No action has been taken to make those who misbehaved in this manner in the full glare of publicity accountable.

One of the biggest handicaps that the UNP suffered was the bond scam and the Arjuna Mahendran affair. The SLPP was clever enough to milk the issue dry and using it to overshadow and hide its own actions of corruption during its reign.

The crowning blow to the Yahapalana Government was probably the dastardly Easter Sunday terrorist attacks. This too was exploited to the maximum by the SLPP which argued that the lack of national security was the primary obstacle to the development of the country. The fact that the Government was able to bring the situation under control within a month and complete mopping up operations relating to the attack within a month was also not understood by the people.