Value lies with Ulla
DISTANCE: MINIMUM TRIP AND DROP IN CLASS FAVOUR PETTIGREW’S MARE
Bingwe stands out as best bet on Vaal card.
It is remarkable to consider the difference that extra 200m between 1000m and 1200m makes in a sprint.
So many horses are superb over 1000m but almost come to a stop a few metres past that. Others need that extra 200m to make up the ground on the front runners.
That is the concept punters will need to explore in Race 8 at the Vaal tomorrow, a FM 95 Handicap over 1000m for fillies and mares on the Classic track.
The strongest current form is held by Sheer Talent and Eskimo Kisses.
Paul Matchett-trained Sheer Talent has won her last three starts, but they have all been over 1200m. In all of those races the four-year-old daughter of Ideal World has produced the fastest 400m to finish and last time, on the Turffontein Inside track, she just got up on the line.
She will be running on late and it will be a matter of whether S’manga Khumalo can get her up before the post.
Gavin Lerena has an excellent relationship with Eskimo Kisses, having ridden her to all three of her victories. Once again, she has not won in three races over 1000m but has been runner-up to Mademoiselle on two occasions, beaten less than a length in both events. The other instance was on debut where she ran fifth, beaten just 2.05 lengths by Fararanga.
Candice Dawson has Eskimo Kisses at peak fitness and the five-year-old daughter of What A Winter has been fitted with blinkers for the occasion, which will hopefully make her more alert.
Perhaps the best value could lie with a mare who is a 1000m specialist and has raced against stronger – and that is Ulla. Stuart Pettigrew is another yard in fine form and this five-yearold daughter of Querari looks ready to win again.
Last time she raced in a strong Pinnacle Stakes over 1160m at Turffontein and finished a 3.25-length third behind Pool Party. She was up with the pace for most of the journey in a race where the average merit rating was 106, and only got caught close home.
Four of her five wins have come over 1000m so she will benefit from the drop in distance, as well as the 4kg claimed by apprentice Philasande Mxoli.
Piere Strydom is back aboard Corne Spies-trained Madame Patrice and that is a combination that has had much success. Strydom has ridden the filly three times for two wins.
Che Bella, Winter Watch, Before The Dawn and Phillydelphia are no slouches and any of them could get into the fight for honours.
Best bet on the card appears to be Bingwa in Race 5, a Maiden Plate over 1600m. This gelding from the Dorrie Sham stable has been knocking and could escape the maidens on this his fourth try.
He was touched off by his more fancied stablemate last time and unless there is an excellent first-timer in the field, Callan Murray should guide this one home.