Bookies on back foot

O’, n Sunday night I opened the new Goodforthgame rugby forum thread and in it I attempted to handicap the Currie Cup matches. The idea was to get my thoughts down before the bookmakers priced up and this often leads to some nice betting opportunities early in the week

I had not been following the local rugby scene quite as closely as I usually do, mainly because of work and family commitments. While I was aware that the Cheetahs were going to be playing in the Pro14 and the Currie Cup, I had not realised their first Pro14 match was this weekend.

I made the Sharks favourites for the game by 4.5 points but in my mind was picturing a fullstrength Cheetahs team taking to the field. One of our regular posters, Hanrick, pointed out that this was not the case and everyone waited to see if the bookmakers would make the same mistake I did.

The Cheetahs squad to tour overseas was announced and it was clear that the team to play the Sharks were basically going to be a bunch of unknowns. The first bookmaker came out with the line at -12.5 and punters piled into the home team and the -12.5 shifted to 13.5, 14.5 and eventually 15.5 before the market was suspended. The bookies clearly realised that they had underestimated or not considered the impact that the Pro14 participation would have on the Cheetahs and as I write this, the Sharks are now 28.5 point favourites.

The alert punters who took the -12.5 and the few levels above are certainly sitting pretty and can trade to some extent if they feel they have overextended. The bookies who priced up early (and full credit to them) will have to sweat it out and hope that somehow the Sharks take the game too lightly and the Cheetahs can beat the handicap.

I know which position I would rather be in but, sadly, I am not one of the punters who grabbed the early value.

Brent Graham is a sports betting blogger at

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