Cold fact of weight reversal
Bella Chica has benefit of 4kg claimer up. DEBATE: WHAT EXTENT DO WEIGHT TURNAROUNDS MATTER IN SPRINTS
There are opposing views expressed about the difference a turnover of weights makes in a sprint. Some people believe it to be the same as a race run over a middle distance while others feel the shorter trip nullifies much of the turnaround.
That debate will come under a microscope in Race 6 at the Vaal today, a MR 93 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1000m.
Bella Chica and Cold Fact last met on 3 August over this track and trip. That race was won by Ashley Fortune-trained Bella Chica, who beat Cold Fact by 2.50 lengths.
When they meet this time, Paul Peter’s charge will be 3kg better off and that means there should be little between the pair.
But we can add in another factor.
The only reason the gap is so close is because Fortune has engaged 4kg claiming apprentice Kaidan Brewer to ride Bella Chica.
According to the “rules of the game” that allowance is given to compensate apprentices for their lack of experience, and in some cases, any deficiency in competence.
Former champion jockey Piere Strydom argues that 4kg is 4kg and it makes a massive difference, especially in the finish.
So, will the allowance compensate Brewer to such a degree that it will raise his level to match somebody of the proficiency and experience of Gavin Lerena, who will be riding Cold Fact?
Only the race will answer that, but Cold Fact is extremely fast, and Brewer might find it tough to get past Lerena in a tight finish.
Peter’s charge last ran on the Polytrack at Greyville but performed badly. She was examined afterwards and nothing obvious was detected. It just could have been the surface, or maybe she did not travel all that well.
But she’s better than that and deserves another chance.
Bella Chica won four in a row before contesting the Listed Gardenia Handicap over 1000m at Turffontein in which she finished sixth, beaten 3.75 lengths by Hello Winter Hello.
She will appreciate the drop in class.
Other runners to consider are Muleta and Captain’s Run. Muleta had a decent comeback run from a break when finishing a 0.80-length second behind Before The Dawn. Muzi Yeni takes the ride.
Captain’s Run is in good form and had excuses last time when beaten four lengths by Lucy English. She does tend to make a respiratory noise in running and that is a concern.