Uzbekistan’s power vacuum
The death of Uzbek leader Islam Karimov after 27 years in charge and with no clear successor lined up, has plunged his homeland into uncertainty.
A day after Karimov, 78, – who ruled the Central Asian nation with an iron fist – was buried in his hometown, Samarkand, a heavy police presence yesterday remained on the streets of the capital Tashkent.
National flags were lowered as the country marked a second day of official mourning and people began looking to a future without the only leader the country has had since it gained independence in 1991.
“We don’t know who will come after Karimov,” one taxi driver said without giving his name. “Will the prosperity that he has brought us continue?”
Long lambasted by rights groups as a brutal despot who crushed all dissent, Karimov was one of the Communist Party bosses who managed to cling to power in their homelands after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
While decision-making in the tight- ly controlled system he presided over for more than a quarter of a century is almost impenetrable, experts agree that Karimov’s long-term replacement looks set to come from the small inner circle who have divvied up economic control of the country.
For now, the frontrunner appears to be Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyoyev, known as a technocrat enforcer, after he headed the committee that organised Karimov’s funeral and led the tributes.
“The chances for a power struggle are probably low, if only because the elites benefit from the current system and have every incentive to work things out,” said Scott Radnitz, a regional expert at the University of Washington.
“But I should emphasise that all analysts are operating with a lot of uncertainty because of how opaque the system is, and because this is unprecedented.”
There seems little chance that Karimov’s death will lead to greater democracy or a dramatic improvement in the atrocious human rights record in Uzbekistan.