All Blacks have lost their air of invincibility
The All Blacks, often said to be the most successful international team in all sport, have lost their air of invincibility.
As much as the statistics confirm their status as the most garlanded rugby nation on the planet, more recent numbers, especially following their first ever defeat to Argentina yesterday, suggest they are not as imperious as they used to be.
They have indubitably been the dominant force from the time the game went professional in 1996, racking up a win percentage of 82.4 including last year’s cancelled Test against Italy at the Rugby World Cup (RWC). Their win ratio since 2010 and now stands at 84.9%.
Boks started their rot
However, since winning the 2015 RWC their winning percentage has dropped to 77.9% Even more alarmingly, from September 15, 2018, when the Springboks beat them 36-34 in Wellington, that winning percentage has dropped to 64%.
In that period they’ve played 25 Tests, of which only six were at home, coming at an underwhelming winning rate of 50%.
They might still have an aura, but do they still have an air of invincibility? “No! I don’t think they are as feared as they used to be,” said Swys de Bruin before the All Blacks' defeat yesterday against Los Pumas.
“The All Blacks were still fierce in 2016, 2017 and part of 2018. Rassie [Erasmus, then Bok coach] told me we were going to beat them in Wellington,” recalled the former Springbok attack coach who helped engineer the 2018 win.
Former Springbok prop Robbi Kempson, another man who tasted success with the Boks in the New Zealand capital, albeit 20 years earlier, is in agreement.
“They have certainly lost that air of invincibility,” said Kempson on Friday. “Generally when they play their alternate side they still win relatively comfortably,” he said in reference to the All Blacks defeat to the Wallabies in Brisbane last weekend.
“More to the point however, I think the rest of the unions have caught up. England caught up, South Africa and Ireland have caught up.
“I don't think it is necessarily their decline, it is more the other teams have caught up and are at times beating them at their own game.”
That perhaps feeds into the narrative that New Zealand have been victims of their own success as a rugby nation. Their methods have helped raise the bar elsewhere with their coaching fingerprint keenly felt across the globe. Warren Gatland, Joe Schmidt, Wayne Pivac, John Mitchell, Chris Boyd, Vern Cotter, Robbie Deans, Kieran Crowley, Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown have all upped standards elsewhere.
Organised defence systems
Of course, New Zealand have increasingly lost players to the northern hemisphere and with a selection policy that precludes those who earn a living in Europe, the All Blacks coach's talent pool has shrunk. However, some players who take up deals in Japan remain eligible.
“Generally, if they want to keep a player, they make a plan,” stressed Kempson.
“I’m not sure how that regulation impacts them but they still have a lot of depth,” said De Bruin. “Just look at how many guys they can play at fullback,” he added, perhaps referring to the fact that two players from the same family can play at 15 for the All Blacks.
With less of a gap between the rugby's top nations, largely because of more organised defence systems, De Bruin asserts the Kiwis can’t run amok like they used to.
“They still have players that pose a threat but now teams play with the belief that they can be beaten. You no longer go into the game praying and hoping ‘please let the cards fall for me’.
“I don’t want to sound arrogant, but I don't think they are the threat they once were.”