Soaring prices loom as hope shrivels on farms
IN THE next few months, food prices will rocket at a rate above inflation, farmworkers will lose their jobs and farmers will sink deeper into debt and depression because of the worsening drought.
In predicting this, AgriSA’s senior economist, Thabi Nkosi, says the drought – the most severe in 20 years – is persisting throughout the maize planting window, which is from the end of October to early January, and farmers have not been able to sow seed.
“If you plant later than the window period, you will expose your crops to a lot of frost and damage them.”
White maize, the country’s staple crop, is a concern because there are few countries that produce it, Nkosi says. Among those that do are Zambia, Malawi, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina.
“But since Zambia has been hit by a drought it is unlikely we will get white maize from that country. We will be looking towards South America. With the weak rand it remains to be seen how affordable imports of white maize will be.”
Nkosi predicts food prices will increase by far more than 10 percent, double the inflation rate, which is at 4.8 percent.
About 80 percent of the country’s grain is grown in the Free State and North West, the provinces hit hardest by the drought.
“We will definitely see double-digit food prices inflation towards the middle of this year. We have a surplus of maize from the past season, so we are safe until April. After that we will run into serious shortages and higher food prices.”
There will also be steep price increases in wheat, poultry and red meat, Nkosi says.
Farmers in the Free State and North West have been culling livestock since late last year.
Although wheat supplies are not a major concern as South Africa imports this grain, with the drought more will be needed.
There will be a decrease in agricultural labour because farmers are struggling with cash flow and turnover.
There will probably be job cuts in the agricultural sector, Nkosi says.
“What is encouraging is that maize is not the most labour-intensive industry in the agricultural sector.
“Most people are employed in horticulture, which has not been as hard hit as the grain industry, so the job cuts will not be drastic, but we will certainly see a decrease.”
Some farmers who have reserves from last season are scraping by with these, but few are able to survive.
Many farmers owe banks production loans from the previous season that they have not been able to repay.
“It is a difficult time for farmers. We have seen a lot of psychological aspects that we hadn’t anticipated, such as the suicide of a farmer in the East- ern Cape.”
Krisjan Kruger, 34, was a cattle and maize far mer in Elliot. He allegedly told a neighbour he was suffering from depression because of the drought. He feared he would lose the farm he had grown up on. He shot himself with a rifle.
Nkosi said even if it started to rain and the drought ended, it would be too late for maize production and farmers would lose money.
“What we can assist with is providing some sort of aid to far mers so they can retain labour. We can negotiate with the banks on how to restructure the debt some of the farmers are facing.”
AgriSA has called for the drought to be declared a national disaster. It is seeking legal opinion on the steps it needs to take, Nkosi says.
Government reprioritised R305.3 million from two agricultural funding programmes towards drought relief.
In addition the Department of Rural Development and Land Reform has committed R66.4 million towards Land Care programmes, a government programme for sustainable management and use of agricultural resources.