Boks have 50-50 chance to win the World Cup
The only disadvantage the Springboks have going into the Rugby World Cup final against England on Saturday is the short turnaround week.
While the Boks were digging deep before squeezing home against Wales in their semifinal at Yokohama Stadium, the England players had their feet up after already having a day to recuperate from their bruising clash with New Zealand.
It is a significant disadvantage.
So for that matter is the fact that England have also played one game fewer than the Boks because of the cancelled game against France at the end of the pool stages due to Typhoon Hagibis.
There is therefore less wear and tear in the England camp than there might otherwise have been. If they win on Saturday, they would have won the World Cup off a six-game campaign, not the usual seven.
But those are the only disadvantages.
The others that people perceive after watching England so easily deal with New Zealand while the Boks struggled, or appeared to struggle, to overcome Wales, are just that — perceptions.
In many ways it was the perfect weekend for the Boks.
They got through to the final but had the close game that maybe they needed to be properly ready for a final that is likely to also be tightly fought.
England’s big win created expectations that will add much pressure in the build-up week.
It may surprise those who watched both games to read me saying this, but I make the final a 50/50 game.
There are several reasons for that, not the least of them being something that Wales coach Warren Gatland pointed out at the post-match media conference on Sunday night.
The history of World Cups reflects a tendency for teams to play their final in the semifinal.
Let’s go back through history to illustrate the point.
In 1995 New Zealand established themselves as clear favourites to win the final when they trampled England so unceremoniously underfoot in the Cape Town semi.
That was the day Jonah Lomu famously ran over England back Michael Catt as if he wasn’t there.
But did they produce anything like that in the final against the Springboks a week later? They didn’t come close — they weren’t allowed to — and that was against an SA team that many considered fortunate to get home against France in a rain-soaked semifinal in Durban.
In 1999, France played rugby from another planet when they shocked the All Blacks at Twickenham, only to be mediocre in losing comprehensively to the Wallabies in the final in Cardiff a week later.
In 2007 the Boks were brilliant in whitewashing England at the start of the tournament and they displayed irrepressible form when they easily dispatched Argentina in their semifinal.
They did win the deciding game against the same England in Paris, but it was nothing like their previous performances, due to the huge pressure in a final.
And that is why you won’t catch me betting my house on an England win. Ask a New Zealand team of more recent vintage about the pressure of playing in a World Cup final.
They only just scraped home in a very nervy final against France in 2011 but thrashed those same opponents in pool play and were brilliant against Australia in the semifinal.
They definitely played their final that year in the semifinal against the Wallabies.
There’s more. As impressive as England were in beating New Zealand, let me make a slightly incendiary statement by suggesting that the Boks might have beaten them as emphatically in Yokohama at the start of this tournament had they had Nigel Owens as the referee that day and not Jerome Garces.
Gatland has it right: the Boks are the one team in the tournament that has the pack and all-round physicality to potentially hurt England, and they are streets better than the All Blacks right now.
We’ve seen examples of England being hurt by the Bok pack before, such as in their two Test defeats in SA when Rassie Erasmus had just started, and in the first half at Twickenham later in the year when the Boks went in significantly under strength.
Erasmus is relatively new to the international coaching job compared with other coaches at this World Cup, and yet he goes into the final with a two-all record against Eddie Jones, who has been in charge of England since late 2015.
The winner next Saturday will be the team that best takes its chances and best handles the unique pressure that comes with playing a World Cup final.
There are too many questions that can only be answered on the day and it is why I make it a 50/50 game.
The winner next Saturday will be the team that best takes its chances and best handles the unique pressure