IRP high risk: SA can do so much better
SOUTH Africa’s draft Integrated Resources Plan (IRP) 2023 makes the case for a fossil-heavy electricity generation system on the basis of undisclosed and unsupported assumptions that are not replicable, according to wildlife conservation organisation WWF.
WWF claimed the IRP also did not take into account the “uncompetitive future” to which the plan would bind the South African economy.
“This is not only a step back for the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) in terms of consultation and clarity of work, it is a high-risk pitch for special interests at the cost of the citizens’ futures. We can and must do better,” said James Reeler, senior manager for Climate Action with WWF South Africa.
The draft IRP was released by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy last week. It is the country’s key electricity generation planning instrument.
Reeler described the draft IRP as “not only disappointing, it also seems to fly in the face of all other electricity generation models, both national and internationally”.
“It would appear that the IRP’s conclusions are driven by a foregone conclusion that fossil gas and coal are necessary, with modelling constraints for different pathways constructed to support this.
“The end result is a vision that proposes to increase greenhouse gas emissions and the concomitant health impacts of our energy system, at massive cost to human health and well-being,” he said.
According to WWF, the IRP’s cost assumptions differ significantly from what has been seen in the real world, where renewable energy (RE) is now the cheapest form of energy that has ever been available, and the assertion that large scale renewable builds will result in large amounts of unserved energy is likely driven more by artificial constraints placed on the model than real feasibility assessment.
“The IRP’s near-term reliance on fossil gas to make up a shortfall in generation should not be construed to mean that exploitation of gas reserves is a viable option for the long term. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and International Energy Agency (IEA) are clear that to meet the global goal of limiting climate change to near 1.5 °C the world cannot afford to make use of any additional fossil fuels.”
“Delaying the shutdown of coal plants will violate any chance of South Africa meeting its international mitigation commitments; the low likelihood and very high cost of carbon capture and storage mean it is not a reasonable fix for continued operation of coal plants.
“WWF is extremely concerned that Cabinet has approved this document in its current state for public consultation, and calls for better transparency and rigour in the development of such critical planning documents.”
The Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) meanwhile said the IRP provides a critical market signal for investment in new power generation and localisation with implications for the poor through electricity affordability, access, job creation and industrialisation, skills development, impact of climate change and air quality.
The updated IRP is being released in the context of a national power crisis, rapidly rising energy costs, and a deterioration in living standards for many South Africans, the PCC said.
“Aligned with the recommendations made by the PCC in April 2023, we welcome the IRPs emphasis on grid investment.
“The long-term focus to 2050 is critical in the climate context. The multiple scenarios in the IRP analysis provide a useful consideration of future options. The focus on the immediate challenge up to 2030 is of course prudent” said Dr Crispian Olver, executive director of the commission.
The PCC will be conducting a technical review of the IRP.