Mad scramble for gas and its spin-offs
RETICENT to drain the cabinet of inept people ahead of the ANC conference later this year, lest some disenchanted people should abandon his ship to clamber aboard the rickety raft of some nefarious no-good, the president continues with his cabinet crew. Until that elective conference is astern and vital cabinet changes have been made, the country will continue to wobble its way to nowhere.
No time should be wasted, though, in alleviating at least some of the misery in the country. Given the staggering unemployment figures (perhaps 50 percent, rather than the deflated figures released yesterday), and the uncontrolled birth rate - an alarmingly ominous portent for the future - the country must encourage family planning, while exploiting every possible niche to expand the job market.
Occasional suggestions offered in this column will not create an employment panacea, but will provide jobs for some. Although regular readers may recognise some arguments from previous columns, given current global and local events, such topics have become extremely urgent. Like him or loathe him, and although questionable clouds may have shrouded his decision, the minister of mineral resources and energy was right to encourage seismic surveys off the coast. At least we would know whether viable offshore oil or gas reserves exist – and if they do, we could be planning the production programme and shore side facilities to receive the gas or oil.
With its legal challenge to seismic surveying, the green lobby has ensured that we shall never know what lies beneath the seabed anywhere off our coast, a most destructive and unhelpful action given the country’s fuel needs and the dire imperatives of job creation.
As the oil price soars, the country is paying dearly for imported crude oil, and, as far as we know, we have none of our own. With idle oil refineries and the ensuing decline in local production, the price of imported refined products is also soaring as producing countries and some tanker owners exploit our precarious position relating to oil and fuel supplies.
Gas, however, is the favoured fuel, said to emit less carbon than others, although I recall that during my schoolboy science experiments, the test-tubes were blackened over a Bunsen burner. After the major Japanese earthquake and tsunami of 2011 – and the consequential closure of the Fukushima nuclear power station - the rush for gas prompted several shipping companies to buy or build sizeable LNG carriers, some in excess of 214 000m3 capacity. It also prompted Russia to expand its Yamal gas project for which special huge ice-breaking gas carriers were constructed.
In recent weeks, we have witnessed the fragility of gas supply routes that, in a very short time, can be turned off, leaving entire countries short of energy. Imagine the rush now to import gas and the rising demand for gas carriers to move LNG across the North Atlantic Ocean to European terminals.
At the time of its discovery, a leading figure in the local oil and gas sector claimed that the Brulpadda gasfield and an adjacent gas reserve would be remarkable assets for the country, perhaps as important as the gold discoveries in the late nineteenth century. That, however, seems to have been forgotten – unless behind closed doors, folks are strategising to bring the gas ashore, a long-term project.
Then came news of a possible deal to import Russian gas via Ngqura where an import terminal will need to be constructed, a complex and specialised project for which construction and operation tenders certainly cannot be awarded to loyal cadres who doubtlessly will have their hands out. It takes time to prepare adequately for gas imports, but it has been reported that Gazprom, a company said to have cozied up to the ANC, may have the inside track for any gas import projects here.
Surely we can get gas from less controversial sources – Angola, Nigeria or even Qatar? Indeed, any deal with Russia involving gas supplies or financing now would smack of expedience and support for its brutal invasion of Ukraine. Rather, carefully considered decisions should be based on geopolitical factors – and on what is best for the reputation of our country, once the exemplary Mandela-inspired rainbow nation.
Because of the current surge in demand for gas, importing LPG via the Saldanha buoy will be much more expensive for South African consumers.
My brief visit to the west coast over the weekend revealed six ore carriers in St Helena Bay (as well as one in Saldanha Bay and another in Table Bay) awaiting berthing at the Saldanha ore terminal.
A few days earlier, ten ships were in St Helena Bay, and on Monday, eight ships were in the queue.
Occasionally, the ore terminal suffers range action that can hamper loading at the ore berths, but hopefully, the ageing loading machinery is operating efficiently as delays to ships cost money.
Oh for a dynamic and knowledgeable minister of maritime affairs to lead a revitalisation of our shipping sector – including gas imports!