Mkhize: Third wave could hit SA at any time

“In the absence of a new variant and fatigue delay, we should get infections (down) to zero

SANDILE BUTHELEZI Director-general in the Health Department

THE Health Department has said the modelling for the third wave was indicating that it would not be worse than the second wave.

Briefing the health portfolio committee yesterday, Health Minister Zweli Mkhize said the work on modelling for the third wave was under way.

“Everything about it remains uncertain – basically when it is to arise, how bad it is – although there are indications it is unlikely to be worse than the second wave,” Mkhize said. “Nevertheless, what we would like is a situation where we vaccinate as many people as possible without really being troubled, worrying about the next wave.”

Responding to questions from MPs, Mkhize warned that although the department did not have the exact timing for the third wave, it could happen any time. “We hope it may not be as bad. No one can say for a fact. We are watching out for it and will respond as far as possible as it arises.”

Director-general in the Health Department Sandile Buthelezi said in the absence of a new variant, the department expected the peak of the third wave to be lower than the second one. “The time from initial increase in transmission to the peak is on average two to three months. In all age groups, the hospital admissions are projected to be lower than levels in the second wave,” Buthelezi said.

“In the absence of a new variant and fatigue delay, we should get infections (down) to zero. It should afford more time to vaccinate as many people as possible before the third wave,” he said.

Mkhize told MPs that there were concerns with three provinces – Northern Cape, Free State and North West.

“Those three show numbers that are increasing. Those numbers are very low compared to the total number of the population in South Africa. We are working on them very closely and trying to reduce the numbers and further spread in those areas,” he said.

Mkhize also noted that there were a number of countries experiencing the third wave already. The minister also said some people were concerned about what was happening in India, but government was monitoring the situation there.