FRANK STEWART BRIDGE

BY THE NUMBERS

Cy the Cynic insists that statistics are overrated, and 28.6 percent of people know it. Cy tends to play by instinct, not by percentages. Playing at today’s 3NT, Cy won the first spade in his hand and led the ace and nine of hearts. East won with the king and led the jack of diamonds, and the Cynic took his king, led a spade to dummy and tried a third heart. West won and returned the queen of diamonds. Cy won, led a spade to dummy and tried a club to his queen, but West produced the king, cashed his queen of hearts and led his last diamond. Down two. “I had a feeling hearts would break 3-3,” Cy shrugged.

Would you make 3NT?

Better

Cy’s play wasn’t bad (about 68 percent), but he could do better. At Trick Two he leads a low club toward dummy.

West takes the jack and leads another spade (no defense is better), and Cy next leads the ten of clubs, losing to the king. He wins two club tricks, four spades, two diamonds and a heart. This play succeeds about 75 percent of the time.

Daily Question

You hold: ♠ A K 4 ♥ 8 7 4 3 2 ♦ 8 42 ♣ 10 5. Your partner opens one diamond, you respond one heart and he next bids one spade. The opponents pass. What do you say?

Answer: Though the bid of a new suit by responder is forcing (unless he is a passed hand), a nonjump change of suit by opener is not forcing (unless it is a “reverse”). Pass. Game is unlikely, and you have no attractive second bid to make. Hope for a plus score where you are.

South dealer

N-S vulnerable