Zille’s return to wounded DA may cause more bleeding
In the May election the DA’s share of the vote declined by 1.5 percentage points, while the ANC’s dropped by 4.7% points. But it is the DA that is imploding before our eyes, while the ANC continues on its merry dysfunctional way. Why?
In the ANC, when bad things happen they are seldom regarded as the fault of an individual or group of leaders but as a fatalistic outcome of difficult circumstances induced by something else. In the DA, accountability counts. It is people, especially leaders, who make mistakes, and there are few second chances.
This is a reason for the DA’s postelection fallout, but not the fundamental one. Since the election, the DA has continued to bleed. Independent pollster Dawie Scholtz says the DA lost 20% of the Afrikaner vote in May compared to the 2016 municipal election. The trend in by-elections since indicates that the DA has now lost 34% of the Afrikaner vote. The losses are mainly in the northern provinces.
In the Northern Cape and Western Cape, says Scholtz, the DA lost 20%-30% of its previous coloured support. And since 2016, the number of black Africans who support it has stagnated.
If these trends continue, by the DA’s own calculations 386 municipal councillors stand to lose their jobs in the 2021 election. The threat of the loss of one’s livelihood focuses the mind fast. DA public representatives who fear losing their jobs are driving the momentum for urgent change. It was this fear that put Helen Zille into the driver’s seat of what she calls the “blue machine”.
The fallout has already been huge. Herman Mashaba, Johannesburg mayor, has resigned and the party is in effect split into two factions, mostly but not exclusively along racial lines. Leader Mmusi Maimane is clearly considering his options, saying that whether he stands again for leader will depend on the policy positions the DA takes at its forthcoming policy conference.
The differences between the sides are actually slight. For instance, both believe in democracy, freedom and fairness and the principle of redress for disadvantage. They differ on whether race is a suitable and justifiable proxy for disadvantage.
Though the differences are small, the consequence of the way this gets resolved is big. At the end of it the DA could be a party that has reestablished its cohesion and, in a best-case scenario, succeeded in bringing its minority voter support back. But it could also be a party that, through its actions, has sent the message to black South Africans that this is not a party for them. There are big implications for the prospects of multiparty democracy in the country.
Judging by the balance of forces that led to Zille beating Maimane ally Athol Trollip in the federal executive election last week, and by the response of black leaders — particularly Mashaba, but also Maimane, who made sure to be at his side when he resigned in disgust — the message on not being a party for blacks looks the more likely turnout at this point.
Add to this another factor: the composition of the DA’s national congress, which is made up of a strong majority of municipal councillors. Among them will be the 386 councillors who stand to lose their jobs unless the bleeding stops. Their motivation to dislodge Maimane, who they see as the cause of the troubles, will be strong.
IT COULD ALSO SEND THE MESSAGE THAT THIS IS NOT A PARTY FOR BLACK SOUTH AFRICANS, WITH BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR MULTIPARTY DEMOCRACY IN SA
Ironically, it was Zille who first had the vision that the DA could be more than a small opposition and could contest for power. It was due to her vision and determination that the DA won first the city of Cape Town and then the Western Cape province. And it was because of her that the DA elected young black leaders to head it up.
Maimane, who is leader only because she gave him a leg up, has not proved himself to be a great one. He has articulated the party position well enough and made a case for a party that, distinct from the ANC, is a home for all. But he is not hugely insightful or thoughtful and frequently has not seen the unintended consequences of his actions. Under pressure from the ANC and the black twitterati who have called him a stooge, he has fallen into the trap of climbing on the racial bandwagon.
But whether he has been a good leader or not, he has become the face of the DA and a household name who enjoys a significant amount of public admiration. But what households, especially black households, are observing right now is a black man being put in his place by a white woman. After this we can be sure that trust in the DA will be lower than ever.