Zuma successor race could split Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal

Aubrey Matshiqi

THE Nkandla imbroglio has become a proxy for the political desires of some in the leadership and the rank and file of the African National Congress (ANC). Since 2005, proxy arguments have been informed by political calculations that have as their source the perceived or real wishes and fears of President Jacob Zuma. I was therefore not surprised when two Sunday newspapers recently ran two different stories about two conflicting narratives about Nkandlagate.

The Sunday Times told the story of how, according to Jessie Duarte, deputy secretary-general of the ANC, Nkandla is not an issue for ANC supporters and voters.

On the same day, City Press got the preponderance of airtime with the story that Gwede Mantashe, secretary-general of the ruling party, opined to the paper that Police Minister Nathi Nhleko should explain why more money should be spent on the controversial Nkandla project. Mantashe, said City Press, believed Nhleko’s proposal would annoy voters.

What was interesting is that Mantashe did not invoke the I-was-quoted-out-of-context argument. He repeated his sentiments on Nkandla on other media platforms and contrition was not part of his repertoire.

What is happening? A lot, but we can only deal with a few possibilities.

It is possible that Duarte and Mantashe are not wrong. Maybe they are talking about two distinct and monolithic blocs of voters whose political considerations and electoral preferences are separated by the high walls of Nkandla.

On the other hand, they may both be guilty of the sin of oversimplification as voter preferences are seldom reducible to a single factor. If you want to get closer to the truth, just take a few minutes to examine the electoral performance of the ANC since 2004. It seems that a trend is being established and, barring a reversal of fortunes in the 2019 elections, it does not look like an upward trend is in the offing for the ANC. If I were Duarte, I would be less sanguine about the sentiments of ANC supporters and South African voters in general.

Second, the Duarte-Mantashe difference in opinion suggests that the top six of the ANC is not a happy space.

It also suggests that given a choice between the interests of the country, party and a powerful leader, SA and the ANC are the Cinderellas of the story.

But that Mantashe, as one commentator put it, decided to go “rogue” is not insignificant. In fact, Paul Mashatile is probably the bigger Nkandla “rogue” and he and Mantashe are not lone voices. While we may quibble about the numbers, what should not be in dispute is the fact that there are many in the ANC and the alliance who, up to now, have lacked the courage to speak openly because a climate obtains in which it is much safer to act and speak in defence of the leader. This is about to change, and this brings me to my third point.

While there are attempts by some in the ANC to extend Zuma’s term as party president beyond 2017, internal ANC dynamics between now and the ANC’s 2017 national conference will be shaped more by the fact that the Constitution does not allow Zuma’s supporters to seek a third term for him as head of state.

Let me deal with the least profound argument in this article. The succession battle is upon us. Yes, it is too early for the protagonists to declare their positions publicly or in the formal structures of the party. However, it would be naive in the extreme to surmise that there are no informal meet- ings in cigar smoke-filled rooms, where single-malt whisky quaffing ANC luminaries are discussing leadership succession with Zahara playing in the background.

Discussions about “slates” are upon us too. That the slates are not public does not mean they do not exist. It is in this context that Mantashe’s utterances will be taken seriously by the defenders of the throne and those who want to wear the crown.

And yes, there are people in the ANC who want to attend Mantashe’s coronation one day. We can quibble about numbers and prospects. Whether such people are being delusional or not will be the subject of another article.

What is important for now is the possibility that the Duarte-Mantashe take on Nkandla may be prefiguring the coming of the lame-duck factor. I am not saying it is imminent. What I am saying, is that at some point after the ANC’s national general council later this year, what Zuma desires will not be important, irrespective of the timing of his Cabinet reshuffle. When politicians feel the need to protect their individual interests, they sometimes suffer sudden and inexplicable attacks of morality. The Nkandla excesses will probably not be an exception in this regard.

The flirtation with things moral may take two forms: firstly, some ANC leaders will become susceptible to the fear that Nkandla security upgrades may be too costly in electoral terms. For many voters, Nkandla may be a single factor but it has become a metaphor for everything they deem to be wrong with Zuma’s presidency.

Secondly, politicians will abandon a leader they see as a threat to their careers and economic advancement. If I am right, the time is approaching when we will see recalibrations of, and reconfigurations in, selfinterest and factional designs.

When that time arrives, will ANC members look in the direction of their deputy president, Cyril Ramaphosa? If my mindreading skills, suspect as they are, are anything to go by, Mashatile and his Gauteng ANC aim to create a new majority to the advantage of Ramaphosa. They must convince the rest of the party that, according to ANC tradition — whether such a tradition exists or not — the man or woman who is elected deputy president at an ANC national conference must be elected president of the party at the next conference.

My assumption is that some comrades in the fracturing ANC province of KwaZuluNatal are going to say “Bayahlanya!” — “They are mad!”.

The ANC in KwaZulu-Natal is faced with the challenge of consolidation. It must make sure that, while the next president will not be anointed by Zuma, he or she must still come from that province.

As there are rumours that some of the Nkandla money may have been diverted to a project aimed at upgrading Zuma’s chances of winning the battle of Mangaung, where will the war chest for 2017 come from, given the possibility that the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal may produce multiple presidential candidates before it settles for a single candidate?

Alternatively, if KwaZulu-Natal does not unite in time behind a single candidate, some members in the province might become part of a KwaZulu-Natal factional chunk that forms the biggest group in a faction supporting the election of Ramaphosa. So, the candidates are Ramaphosa, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, Jeff Radebe, Zweli Mkhize …

A climate obtains in which it is … safer to … speak in defence of the leader. That is about to change

Matshiqi is an independent political analyst.

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