Romney’s choice of running mate is important

THE Republican National Convention begins on August 27 in Tampa, Florida and Mitt Romney will announce his choice of vice-presidential running mate in the coming days. With polls indicating the race for the White House is highly competitive, wide-ranging candidates are being touted in the media to join Romney, including US senators Marco Rubio, Rob Portman and Kelly Ayotte; governors Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie and Tim Pawlenty, and former US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice.

The vice-presidential selection process is a custom that attracts prominence partly because of several key changes in US politics in recent decades: the vice-presidency has become the best transitional office to the presidency; the office has assumed more power and resources; and the electoral stakes of not selecting a deputy perceived to be capable of assuming office effectively upon the incumbent’s death or incapacity have grown.

Romney will be keen to make a choice that will not harm his electoral prospects, which is why Portman has received so much attention from the media, given his experience in Washington as director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, US trade representative, and his current position, senator for the swing state of Ohio. Historically, the choice of vice-presidential nominees tended to be fashioned on issues such as reconciling important party stakeholders; and the perceived advantage of cultivating “balanced tickets” in which the vice-presidential and presidential candidates were differentiated by factors such as their “home” region or philosophical wings of the party, to maximise support.

One potential balanced-ticket candidate is Rubio, whose life story — born in Florida to Cuban immigrants — contrasts favourably with perceptions of Romney’s wealth and privilege. Rubio is also a Tea Party favourite, neutralising conservative concerns about Romney’s more moderate Republicanism. The selection of Rubio, while containing the hazard of his relative political inexperience, would increase the chances of winning Florida, a key state.

Romney’s wife, Anne, has also highlighted that a woman may be chosen. As well as Rice and Ayotte, female candidates touted in the media include two governors who, like Ayotte, are serving only their first term of office: South Carolina governor Nikki Haley (an American-Indian whose parents emigrated from Amritsar), and New Mexico governor Susana Martinez (who could appeal to the growing US Hispanic population).

However, partly because of the changes in the presidential nomination system, these traditional considerations are less relevant to the modern process. Whether or not these developments have injected greater uncertainty into the vicepresidential selection process, it is unquestionably the case that choices are routinely made that confound the pundits.

The selections of Washington veterans Dick Cheney and Joe Biden were noteworthy inasmuch as they were chosen to fortify the national and international political inexperience of George Bush and Barack Obama. Cheney assumed a highprofile role as vice-president, and is widely viewed as the most powerful holder of the office ever.

The selections of Cheney and Biden were interesting in another sense: both Bush and Obama assumed that their more experienced running mate was no political threat to them, and would be very loyal, because they were too old to run for the presidency themselves in the future. Seen through the prism of the past few decades, this is unusual. Indeed, since 1960, four vice-presidents (Richard Nixon, Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale and Al Gore) won their party’s presidential nomination but lost the election, while two vice-presidents have been elected president (Nixon and George Bush Snr.) One reason vicepresidents have, in the post-war period, enjoyed particular success in securing their party’s presidential nomination relates to the Twenty Second Amendment in 1951. This constitutional amendment restricted presidents from serving more than two terms. This allowed for organising a presidential campaign in the sitting president’s second term of office without charges, from inside or outside his party, of disloyalty.

Romney’s decision will be a defining one of his campaign. Miscalculation could prove damaging. But if the selection wins strong approval, Romney’s candidacy will secure invaluable new momentum.

Hammond is an associate partner at ReputationInc. He was formerly North America editor at Oxford Analytica and an adviser to the UK government.