How to stabilize China-US relations
Devising an effective strategy to compete, cooperate, and coexist with China will be one of US President-elect Joe Biden’s toughest foreign policy challenges. And over the next two months, Sino-US relations are almost certain to get worse.
On the eve of the election, President Donald Trump openly blamed China for the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic that was going to doom his second term and made thinly veiled threats. Now that he is about to exit the White House, Trump will likely approve more punitive measures to vent his anger and to bind the hands of Biden’s incoming administration. Even if China refrains from responding in kind to Trump’s parting shots, some of which may be too painful or humiliating for it to swallow, the US-China relationship that Biden inherits could be damaged beyond repair.
Given the current widespread antipathy toward China among both the US political establishment and public, Biden is unlikely to change the fundamental tenets of Trump’s China policy. China will remain America’s foremost geopolitical adversary, and containing its rise will be the organizing principle of US foreign policy for the foreseeable future. But the Biden administration’s China policy will also differ substantially from Trump’s zero-sum “America First” approach. Biden’s strategic calculation is that the Sino-US conflict will be a decades-long marathon whose outcome will depend on whether the US can sustain and strengthen its competitive advantages: Economic dynamism, technological innovation and ideological appeal. Besides rallying traditional US allies, therefore, Biden will focus on strengthening the country at home by addressing its dilapidated infrastructure, inadequate base of human capital, and underfunded research and development. Moreover, whereas the Trump administration sees no room for cooperation with China, the Biden administration will regard mutually beneficial collaboration on issues such as climate change, pandemics and nuclear nonproliferation as both desirable and essential.
The biggest obstacle to a more stable US- China relationship is the trade war. In January 2020, the two countries concluded a “phase one” agreement that temporarily paused, but did not end, the worst trade conflict in recent memory. If Trump does not abrogate the deal before he leaves office, Biden and Xi should immediately restart talks to avert a looming catastrophe — namely, the impossibility of China meeting the Trump administration’s demand that it buy an additional $200 billion of US goods and services over the two-year period from 2020 to 2021. A realistic solution may require a more comprehensive phase two agreement that extends the time frame for China to fulfill its purchase commitment.
This modest road map may not alter the trajectory of the US-China “great power” conflict. But by demonstrating their willingness to cooperate despite their fundamental differences, Biden and Xi can reassure the international community that cooler heads have prevailed in both countries.
Minxin Pei is a non-resident senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the US. ©Project Syndicate