Environmental catastrophe
When clouds gather, it is human nature to look for silver linings. There is nothing wrong with that; it boosts morale. But the growing belief that the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy will be the solution to global warming is naive and dangerous.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is the latest organization to peddle such wishful thinking. It is apparently founded on observations of cleaner skies over dormant industrial areas and the sighting of fish for the first time in living memory in the waterways of Venice, now that the city is empty of tourists.
The IEA was set up after the 1973 oil crisis to secure access to fossil fuels for energy-hungry industrial countries. Its 2020 Global Energy Review predicted that, thanks to COVID-19, the drop in demand for energy this year will dwarf the effects of the 2008 financial crisis and result in a record decline in carbon emissions of almost 8 percent. “Only renewables are holding up during the previously unheard-of slump in electricity use,” said Fatih Birol, the agency’s executive director.
It was, he conceded, “still too early to determine the longerterm impacts, but the energy industry that emerges from this crisis will be significantly different from the one that came before.” This prediction was magnified in one typical news headline as “COVID-19 crisis will wipe out demand for fossil fuels, says IEA.” It is true that the use of renewables has been growing steadily, without any help from COVID-19. But they still represent only a minor part of the planet’s overall energy mix. According to the latest BP Statistical Review of
World Energy — the globally recognized and definitive source of accurate energy data — in 2018, power generated by renewables grew by 14.5 percent but still contributed only a fraction of the world’s energy.
These cold hard facts make it clear that renewables are in no position to sweep away fossil fuels. To that we must add two other economic realities that shatter the fantasy that the pandemic will leave the world a greener place. The first is the certainty that when the brakes finally come off, businesses and economies around the world will go into overdrive to make up for lost time and profits. This is already evident in the irresponsibly premature calls around the world for the lifting of lockdowns.
In the rush to get back on track, only fossil fuels — plentiful and instantly available — will be capable of meeting the sudden massive demand for energy. No one is going to be investing in long-term renewable projects. As a result, the environmental gains brought about by the virus will be short lived. Those fish will be gone from the canals of Venice.
The other factor is the vast stockpiles of oil that have built up. This is an economic reality that is building pressure like floodwater behind a weakening dam. Like it or not, this pent-up tidal wave of oil is coming our way, at prices few economies will be able to resist, to power an economic recovery that could well tip us over the cliff edge of global-warming.
Jonathan Gornall is a British journalist, formerly with The Times, who has lived and worked in the Middle East and is now based in the UK.
©Syndication Bureau