Hezbollah makes it sectarian at Qusayr
IN a new twist in the ongoing struggle over Syria, Shiite fighters from Iran, Lebanon and Iraq are flowing into Syria to take part in an all-out battle to save the regime of the embattled President Assad. For the first time, Hassan Nasrallah publicly committed his fighters in a sectarian strife in Syria to thwart the rebels’ military gains. Evidently, Hezbollah has been involved in the ongoing fighting for a long time. But given the heavy casualties among his Shiite fighters, the leader of the party has made it perfectly clear that the battle was his. It seems that the Shiite alliance is in race with time to decide the battle in and around the strategic Syrian city of Qusayr. Assad seeks to take advantage of the fact that the rebels in the city are outnumbered and outgunned.
Nasrallah has a great stake in the survival of Assad’s regime. His statements and speeches are meant to prepare his people for a long struggle and an expected cost. It remains to be seen how his reckless move in Syria will play out in Lebanon especially after a series of sectarian clashes broke out in Lebanon.
For the regime, retaking Qusayr is a very important step in a bid to have an easy access to the Mediterranean port city of Tartus. The city of Qusayr, inhabited by some 30,000 people, is a strategic one that straddles a key transit corridor that links the coastal areas and the capital Damascus. Many experts understand that Assad seeks to secure the city and an easy access to Tartus in case the airport in Damascus ceases to work or gets destroyed.
On the other hand, the rebels are fighting tooth and nail to keep the control over the city. For them, the fall of the city into the hands of the Shiite alliance could weaken their position in Homs, another key city that fell under the control of the rebels for months. Assad and his allies think that there is a chance to reverse the tide of the war. While Russia is providing the governmental forces with advanced weapons, the West is still hesitant and ineffective in aiding the rebels.
Contrary to the statements coming out from the rebels, the Shiite alliance has made some military gains over the last few weeks. It was admitted by the American administration; and Secretary of State John Kerry said in a meeting with the Friends of Syria group in Amman that the regime forces had “made some gains in the last few days but this has gone up and down like a seesaw.”
In other words, John Kerry thinks that the regime’s gains are both temporary and not decisive. The problem with Kerry’s assessment is that Assad is showing no sign of caving in to the Western demands. As long as Iran and Russia are supporting him with everything he needs, Assad will keep fighting. Perh0000aps, Kerry needs to understand that short of providing the rebels with advanced weapon, the hope for a quick collapse of the regime is premature!
Key to the predicament of the rebels is America’s reluctant position. Unlike the West, both Russia and Iran have a clear interest in the survival of the regime and they have been acting accordingly. If the regime manages to decide the battle over Qusayr, the position of the West in the upcoming Geneva II conference will certainly be weak. It follows that the regime position at Geneva II will be way stronger than it would have been a month ago.
It seems as if the situation boils down to one point: The Shiite alliance has the will to have a last stand in Qusayr to reverse the tide in a war that many strategists argued the regime would lose. On the other hand, the rebels are still divided with no proper regional alliance. It is true that the rebels have received financial and modest military assistance, but this is no match to Iranian and Russian commitment to the regime. The open participation of Hezbollah in the war has only consolidated the Shiite alliance, and has sent a clear message that such an alliance can continue with the killing of the Syrians, and get away too.