Caravans threaten Mexico-US detente
Astream of US-bound Central American migrant caravans risks clouding the rapprochement between Mexico’s next leader and US President Donald Trump, who has railed against illegal migration to energise his electoral base.
Mexican president-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a combative leftist who takes office in December, has signalled he hopes to repair bilateral ties damaged by Trump’s criticism of Mexico for failing to stop migration and his demands for a border wall.
From opposite sides of the political spectrum, he and Trump have so far defied fears they could clash, with both helping to find common ground for a new North American trade deal.
But a spate of Central American migrant caravans pushing into Mexico in recent weeks revived tensions in the run-up to US congressional elections yesterday. Trump has threatened to close the US-Mexico border if the migrants are not stopped.
“This is one of the potential flashpoints that could end the bromance between Lopez Obrador and Trump,” Arturo Sarukhan, a former Mexican ambassador to the US, said.
Trump’s 2016 election win sent relations between the two neighbours to their lowest ebb in years.
During the campaign, he repeatedly vowed to make Mexico pay for a border wall to keep out migrants, and accused the country of sending rapists and drug runners north.
Tensions over migration spilled over into economic affairs.
Trump tried to use border security to extract concessions in the revamp of the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta), which he threatened to scrap before the US, Mexico and Canada agreed a new deal on September 30.
Mexico sends 80% of its exports to the US and the Nafta renegotiation rattled Mexico’s financial markets and disrupted investment.
Since a convoy of Hondurans left the city of San Pedro Sula on October 13, several thousand Central Americans have crossed into Mexico. Trump has said he will send troops to the US southern border to stop what he calls an “invasion.”
Lopez Obrador, by contrast, has been offering to help his “brother migrants” with visas and employment.
He wants to persuade Trump to contribute to a plan to promote development in Central America and Mexico’s poorer south.
However, Sarukhan said Trump would almost certainly continue to campaign divisively on border security and migration as the race for the 2020 US presidential election heats up.
“It’s hard for me to see, given the current dynamics in the US, how Lopez Obrador is going to either ensure that this doesn’t become a flashpoint or convince Trump to spend significant political, diplomatic and financial capital in holistic development in Central America,” he said.
Angered by the caravans, Trump has threatened to cut aid to central America — the very opposite of what the region needs, said Hector Vasconcelos, a lawmaker for Lopez Obrador’s MORENA party, and head of the senate foreign relations committee.
“We need big economic development programs in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador if we really want to reduce migration from those countries,” Vasconcelos said.
Most of the migrants say they are fleeing gang violence and poverty.