Don’t forget Mindanao, bets urged

THE INDEPENDENT body monitoring the peace process yesterday said the presidential candidates in May’s national elections must take stock of the “costs of conflict” as it expressed disappointment that the Mindanao problem and the peace negotiations have not been tackled substantially by those aspiring to replace President Aquino.

At the same time, the Third Party Monitoring Team (TPMT) warned of “violent extremism” that could result from the stalled peace process, with the failure of Congress to pass the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL), which would have completed the peace agreement signed by the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in 2014.

Congress adjourned on Feb. 3 to give way to the campaign for the May 9 national elections but without passing the BBL, which would have established a Bangsamoro autonomous region to replace the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, which President Aquino once called a “failed experiment.”

“I suspect that we will not be able to hear (from the candidates) very much until May. If you are running for election at the national level, I fear that the problems on the peace process and Mindanao are not necessarily seen as a vote getter except for parts of Mindanao,” TPMT chair Alistair MacDonald said.

The TPMT is a body jointly established by the government and the MILF to monitor the implementation of the peace agreement.

Other TPMT members are Karen Tañada, Rahib Kudto, Hüseyin Oruç and Steven Rood.

Say more

MacDonald, the former European Union ambassador to the Philippines, said it was observed that in the presidential debate on Feb. 21, “very little was said about the peace process.”

“It could be helpful if the candidates could tell the public how the process might be carried on and forward to a successful conclusion under their administration,” MacDonald said.

The TPMT issued its third annual public report yesterday, with members of the group discussing it at a news conference.

In spite of the failure of the BBL to pass in Congress, primarily because of the clash between elite police forces and Moro rebels in Mamasapano, Maguindanao province, that left more than 60 people dead in January last year, the TPMT said it was confident that “this prize of peace remains attainable, no matter which administration takes office on June 30.”

“No administration can afford to ignore the underlying costs of conflict in Mindanao—the human costs on both sides of the conflict and among the civilian communities, the economic costs of development delayed or forgone, the security and budgetary costs of having a large proportion of AFP (Armed Forces of the Philippines) resources focused on internal rather than external security, and the risk of worsening a climate conducive to the spread of violent extremism,” the TPMT said in its report.

Ceasefire holding

The group noted that at the very least, the ceasefire between the government the MILF continues to hold, unlike in 2008 when fighting immediately broke out after the Supreme Court declared the Moro homeland deal between the Arroyo administration and the MILF unconstitutional.

“It is encouraging that there has been no violent reaction by the MILF to the nonpassage of the BBL,” the TPMT said.

Still, the group said that with a majority of the Moro community now doubting a “successful outcome” of the peace process, the danger of radical ideologies brainwashing the youth has become all the more plausible.

They may not necessarily be members of the MILF, the TPMT said.

“A perception of failure could act as fuel for those who might be tempted in this direction, or those who might wish to encourage it,” it said.

‘Plan B’

With the failure of Congress to pass the BBL until the next administration, the group said, it is “essential to build a path forward, or a ‘Plan B,’ so the next administration can hit the ground running and the unavoidable hiatus while [it] takes stock can be minimized.”

It is also important “to sustain public confidence in the process during this period of uncertainty, including through a clear affirmation of the commitment of both parties to pursuing the peace process,” the TPMT said.

Hope for Bangsamoro

MILF chief peace negotiator Mohagher Iqbal pointed to a need to give the Moro people hope that the BBL will be passed no matter who becomes the new President.

Iqbal said the government should give a firm and unequivocal commitment that it would continue to comply with its obligations under the peace agreement, particularly passage of the BBL.

He also appealed for a halt to actions that may worsen the frustration of the Moro people.

Chief government peace negotiator Miriam Coronel-Ferrer said the peace agreement remained the “most viable road map for policies and legislation that we will continue to pursue under the next administration and the 17th Congress.”

She said the next administration would be foolhardy to wage war and had everything to gain by pursuing peace in Mindnao.

Good prospects for peace

In a statement, MacDonald said he was confident about the good prospects for the peacemaking effort in Mindanao, noting, among other things, that both parties have remained fully engaged with the process, as shown by the meeting between the two sides in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Feb. 10 and 11 and the statement issued by MILF chair Murad Ebrahim on Feb. 18.

In his statement, Murad urged the Moro people to stay with the peace process and ignore elements who might try to instigate extremism.