Concepcion sees 4th quarter rebound

WITH more people getting vaccinated for Covid-19, Presidential Adviser on Entrepreneurship Jose Maria Concepcion 3rd sees the economy returning to prepandemic levels in the last quarter of this year.

Concepcion, who is also the founder of Go Negosyo, considered the arrival of the Sinovac and AstraZeneca vaccines as “the start of our country’s economic recovery.” A shipment of 600,000

doses of Sinovac’s CoronaVac arrived in the country last Sunday, and 487,200 doses of AstraZeneca’s AZD1222 was scheduled for delivery Thursday. Concepcion urged the government to take the next major step to economic recovery by placing the entire country in modified general community quarantine (MGCQ).

“As we vaccinate, we must put the entire country in MGCQ, boost domestic tourism to recover faster and allow the economy to open more,” Concepcion said in a statement.

“This is the last and only chance for our micro and small entrepreneurs to come back strong and utilize the fourth quarter as the start of their bounce back,” he said.

The country plunged into recession after the hard pandemic lockdown disrupted economic activities and left many people jobless.

The government’s economic managers want more businesses to reopen to spur growth and livelihood.

President Rodrigo Duterte initially rejected the recommendation of the National Economic and Development Authority to place all of the country in MGCQ, the most relaxed quarantine.

But he later said he might consider once the country secures at least 2 million doses of the Covid-19 vaccines.

Concepcion believed that with mass vaccination under way, more people would be encouraged to venture out of their homes, spurring economic recovery.

He said if the inoculation campaign goes well, particularly during the second and third quarter, “we would see the economy rebound by the fourth quarter.”

He said 2022 is an election year, and “that is the biggest stimulus when people start to spend behind election.”

“The last quarter of 2021 which is Christmas, I believe is going to be the chance for many of our MSMEs (micro, small and medium enterprises) to get back on their feet. That should be the time that the economy must really be bouncing back,” Concepcion said.

He expects the first batch of around 2.6 million doses of AZD1222 procured under the “A Dose of Hope” program to arrive by May.

Under the program, the government, private sector and local government units (LGUs) signed a tripartite agreement to secure 17 million doses from AstraZeneca.

“The third quarter will be where the remaining 14 million doses will be delivered, this includes the second batch of orders from the private sector and the LGUs,” he said.

Concepcion said he also expected other vaccine brands such as Moderna and Novavax to arrive in the third quarter.

“That’s why we are putting a lot of pressure on the arrival of the vaccines and the implementation has to be excellent. Upon the arrival of the vaccines, people must be vaccinated so that by the fourth quarter, consumer confidence would increase,” he said.

The increase in spending during the Christmas season and the election campaign will complement the other stimulus packages such as the Bayanihan 2, the Create (Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises) bill and the proposed Bayanihan 3, Concepcion said.

“Talking to one of the biggest financing companies in the country, it seems that many micro and small enterprises are affected because they told me that loans below P500,000 are not being paid, while bigger amounts are being paid. You can see the effect of our economic problem and how it is affecting the smaller entrepreneurs. Their lifelines in the banks are not as big as the medium and large companies, and I believe that as the vaccines arrive, we should open up the economy more,” he added.

For this year, the government plans to buy 148 million vaccine doses to inoculate around 50 million Filipinos.

Concepcion also suggested that schools stick to off-classroom learning methods for the meantime to protect schoolchildren from infection.

As of Thursday, the country had 582,223 Covid-19 cases, with 534,778 recoveries and 12,389 deaths.