Who got the coronavirus right? New Zealand, Sweden, US?
THE question in my title will probably annoy some readers. Like Interior Secretary Eduardo Año, who has declared that no country in the world can claim success against the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), perhaps to disguise the shortcomings of the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-EID), of which he is co-chairman.
Still, to paraphrase Leo Tolstoy, Covid- stricken countries are not all alike. Every country has suffered in its own way. Some have been spared the worst of the pandemic while others have suffered severely and are struggling to keep their heads above water.
Experience and outcomes have varied depending on the strategic response that each country employed to battle the virus.
Country size ( population and land area) played a major part in the equation. The bigger the country, the tougher the challenge to control the outbreak. Relatively small countries, which are not densely populated, had an easier time coping with Covid- 19.
Countries differed also according to their philosophy or strategy to beat the virus. The variance in philosophy and strategy has caused a lot of debate.
No one has caused more debate than Sweden, because it pointedly refused to lock down its economy, while the rest of the world did.
When I report here that many analysts concede that Sweden has been successful in its Covid-19 strategy, despite an alarming death count, there will still be those who won’t be convinced.
The issue is still rife, because many countries are now battling a second wave of the virus outbreak, and they must ponder again Sweden’s rejection of a lockdown,
I will start this discussion with a report on New Zealand, whose experience I earlier reviewed positively in this column.
New Zealand: 100 days of no virus transmission
The Agence France- Presse filed the following report on August 9, which got many countries salivating in envy:
“New Zealand marked 100 days on Sunday with no recorded cases of the coronavirus in the community but health officials warned there was no room for complacency.
There are still 23 active cases but all were detected at the border when entering the country and are being held in managed isolation facilities.
‘Achieving 100 days without community transmission is a significant milestone, however, as we all know, we can’t afford to be complacent,’ DirectorGeneral of Health Ashley Bloomfield said.
‘ We have seen overseas how quickly the virus can reemerge and spread in places where it was previously under control, and we need to be prepared to quickly stamp out any future cases in New Zealand.’
New Zealand, with a population of five million, has won widespread praise for its effective handling of the coronavirus since closing its borders on March 19.
The World Health Organization has hailed the country as an example to others for having ‘ successfully eliminated community transmission.’
Since the first patient was diagnosed in February, there have been 1,219 confirmed cases of the virus in New Zealand with the last case of community transmission recorded on May 1.
As a result, New Zealanders are enjoying a near- normal, pre- coronavirus lifestyle with no social distancing and spectators allowed at sports and cultural events, but with the border strictly controlled and all arrivals required to spend 14 days in quarantine.
The government has maintained that the prospect of a second wave remains a possibility.”
It is striking that the celebrated “Lord of the Rings” trilogy was filmed entirely in New Zealand. The country’s Hobbit-like proportions enabled it to defeat the virus.
Sweden, US: 2 very different approaches
I turn my attention next to Sweden and the United States.
Dr. David Samadi, a renowned surgeon in New York City who sometimes corresponds with me, has copied me an article, which was published in the Newsmax website on August 6 , titled: “Who got the coronavirus right, Sweden or US?”
In his article, he touched on all the key factors for evaluating the relative success or failure of countries in responding to Covid-19. He leaves no issue unturned.
I want to reproduce here key excerpts of Dr. Samadi’s article because of its many insights. He wrote:
“Someday in the future, when the pandemic is gone, books will be written on the subject of which countries managed Covid-19 the best and which ones did so in the worst possible ways.
Guaranteed, enormous material pertaining to the actions taken by Sweden and the United States will be scrutinized as a cautionary tale for future handling of pandemics.
A tale of two very different countries with two very different pandemic approaches, and so far ( this pandemic is not over yet) resulting in a mix of similar yet different outcomes that will be analyzed and debated for years to come...
Sweden’s approach
From the beginning, Sweden’s approach to preventing the spread of the virus was controversial. While its bordering neighbors of Denmark, Finland and Norway, along with the rest of Europe imposed strict stayathome orders, closed schools, borders and businesses, Sweden’s relaxed approach to Covid19 stood out like a sore thumb. Strong criticism came swiftly from around the world.
Sweden said ‘No’ to a lockdown by keeping primary schools, nonessential businesses like bars and restaurants (at reduced capacity), and its borders open. Instead, it relied on trusting its citizens using common sense to make wise, voluntary decisions for their own personal safety and health rather than dictated by heavy- handed government interventions.
Sweden has encouraged its citizens to work from home if possible, socially distance from others in public, refrain from nonessential travel, to avoid gathering in crowds of over 50 people and to follow restrictions on visiting the elderly in care homes.
Masks were not mandated or ever required. Their strategy was similar to the US in emphasizing flattening the curve so as not to overwhelm their health care system.
Why such a freeing and liberating approach to an easily spread and deadly virus? As their Public Health Agency’s lead epidemiologist Anders Tegnell stated months ago, ‘The long-term sustainability of strict rules doesn’t last. You can only impose such restrictions for a limited time.’
How has Sweden’s approach to controlling the pandemic panned out? As of August 2, according to the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center, 80,422 Swedish citizens have contracted the virus while 5,743 people have perished from it. That amounts to a 7.1 percent case fatality rate, or 56.40 deaths per 100,000 people.
Sweden is a country of 10 million people, comparable to the population of either Michigan or North Carolina.
About half of Sweden’s deaths occurred among those in eldercare homes.
US approach
“The US opted for a more severe lockdown approach. As Covid-19 cases escalated, the 50 state governors, some harsher than others, individually made their own decisions.
As of August 2, the US had more than 4.6 million people who’ve tested positive for Covid-19 with 154,447 deaths with a case fatality rate of 3.3 percent, and 47.21 deaths per 100,000 people.
Compare these numbers with Sweden, and America looks better.
The United States is a massively much larger country in terms of land mass and a population of close to 330 million people, or 33 times the population of Sweden.
It’s estimated that more than 40 percent of Covid-19 deaths in the US have occurred in nursing homes and assisted living facilities.
Sweden has had its fair share of heartache and grief during the pandemic. Even Anders Tegnell admits more people could have been saved if stricter mandates had been imposed.
Economically speaking, Sweden did feel some pandemic economic pain but according to a May report from Capital Economics, the Swedish economy was also the least harmed in Europe and actually grew in the first quarter of this year.
Meanwhile, the US economy was flattened. In February, the US had a record 50- year low unemployment rate of 3.5 percent which rose to a shocking 14.7 percent in April.
Did anyone get it right?
“To answer this question is not easy. The US so far has managed its death rate from the virus when compared to Sweden. However in July, Sweden successfully flattened its curve of Covid-19 cases to less than 200 a day and daily death totals in the single digits for two weeks. Certain areas of the US are still struggling to contain viral outbreaks.
But the biggest factor separating Sweden’s carefree approach from the United States is the fiercely contentious US presidential election like none seen before...
As a country, we haven’t had a chance to catch our breath and just live our lives normally for many months. We’re weary from everything Covid- 19.
As far as who got it right, right now the US has a lower death count per capita than Sweden. Let’s each do our part keeping it that way.
Ultimately, only time will tell who wins this viral battle.”