IATA forecasts air passenger growth doubling to 8 billion in 2036
In the next two decades, the number of global air travelers will nearly double to 7.8 billion from this year’s 4 billion and Asia Pacific (APAC) will be the biggest driver of demand, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
More than half the new passengers till 2036 will also come from APAC, based on a 3.6% average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in IATA’s 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast.
Even the point at which China will displace the United States as the world’s largest aviation market (defined as traffic to, from and within the country) has moved two years closer since last year’s projections, to 2022.
The UK will fall to fifth place, surpassed by India in 2025, and Indonesia in 2030. Thailand and Turkey will enter the top ten largest markets, while France and Italy will fall in the rankings to 11th and 12th respectively.
“All indicators lead to growing demand for global connectivity. The world needs to prepare for a doubling of passengers in the next 20 years,” IATA’s Director General and CEO Alexandre de Juniac yesterday announced.
“It’s fantastic news for innovation and prosperity, which is driven by air links. It is also a huge challenge for governments and industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand,” he added.
A number of risks to the forecast have been identified. Maximizing the potential benefits of aviation growth will depend on current levels of trade liberalization and visa facilitation being maintained.
If trade protectionism and travel restrictions are put in place, the benefits of air connectivity will decline as growth could slow to 2.7%, meaning 1.1 billion fewer passenger journeys annually in 2036.
Conversely, if moves towards liberalization increase, annual growth could be more than two percentage points faster, leading to a tripling in passengers over the next 20 years.
Planning for growth will require partnerships to be strengthened between the aviation industry, communities and governments to expand and modernize infrastructure.
Runways, terminals, and ground access to airports will come under increasing strain. Innovative solutions to these challenges, as well as to the baggage and security processes, cargo handling, and other activities, will also be needed.
And air traffic management needs urgent reform to cut delays, costs and emissions.
“Increasing demand will bring a significant infrastructure challenge,” according to the IATA CEO. “The solution does not lie in more complex processes or building bigger and bigger airports but in harnessing the power of new technology to move activity off-airport, streamline processes and improve efficiency.”
Already, the aviation industry has adopted a robust strategy to reduce its environmental impacts, particularly its carbon emissions.
“No industry has done more to meet its environmental obligations than aviation. Our tough targets to achieve carbon-neutral growth from 2020 and to cut our CO2 emissions to half-2005 levels by 2050 are backed by a comprehensive strategy.”
Many of the fastest-growing markets are achieving a compound growth rate of more than 7.2% per year, meaning their market will double in size each decade.
Most of these markets are in Africa, including: Sierra Leone, Benin, Mali, Rwanda, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Senegal, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Tanzania, Malawi, Chad, Gambia and Mozambique.
Routes to, from and within AsiaPacific will see an extra 2.1 billion annual passengers by 2036, for an overall market size of 3.5 billion. Its annual average growth rate of 4.6% will be the third-highest, behind Africa and the Middle East.