What can ignite a Us-china war?
The United States sanctioned Chinese General Li Shangfu in 2018 under the so-called Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act when he headed the equipment Development Department of the Chinese military. The sanctions were related to China’s purchase from Russia of 10 SU-35 combat aircraft in 2017 and S-400 surface-to-air missile system-related equipment in 2018, according to the State Department.
China named General Li as minister of national defense on March 12, 2023, prompting pundits to say this might hinder deconfliction talks between the two superpowers.
US officials said current sanctions on General Li will not prevent him from conducting official meetings with his American counterpart. But Beijing wants the US to lift the sanctions as a goodwill gesture, which China sees as a critical step to resuming military talks between the defense chiefs of the two nations. President Joe Biden refused to lift the sanctions.
From Bloomberg: “China declined a US request for the countries’ defense chiefs to meet this week, Beijing’s latest rebuff of the Biden administration’s efforts to restore ties with key officials amid heightened tensions. The US had proposed in May that Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin meet his counterpart Gen. Li Shangfu in Singapore during the Shangri-la Dialogue, a marquee Asia-pacific security gathering.”
The US Defense Department called China’s decision a “concerning unwillingness” to engage in military discussions. The US position is that the sanctions do not technically prohibit a meeting between Austin and Li, so there is no need to remove them.
The Defense Department “believes strongly in the importance of maintaining open lines of military-to-military communication between Washington and Beijing to ensure that competition does not veer into conflict,” Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said in a statement Monday.
Singapore Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen fears that the Us-china relations, which have been in a free fall, might lead to an armed confrontation.
“The stakes have never been higher,” Ng said at the opening ceremony of the IMDEX Asia 2023 naval and maritime exhibition in Singapore. “In my mind, the top priority for all government leaders is to avoid a physical conflict in Asia. Should that calamity ever befall us, whatever the cause and justifications, the world, as we know it, will be radically changed and indeed impoverished,” Ng added.
“A simultaneous war in Europe and Asia will be disastrous for all of us,” the minister said. Given the high stakes, Ng said that the phrase “too big to fail” applies to the Us-china relationship, their relationship with Southeast Asia, other Asian countries and Europe.
That parties are even contemplating the possibility of war, parsing war game outcomes and adjusting strategies “tell us that we have to redouble our efforts in diplomacy, conflict prevention and mitigation, confidence-building measures and cooperation,” Ng said, adding that this is a priority for all leaders and “we cannot fail our people.”
Ng also called on regional leaders to renew their commitment to a rules-based order to guide interactions in the maritime domain—particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. In this regard, he called on China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to conclude a substantive code of conduct based on UNCLOS, which has been in the works for 20 years.
Thucydides was an Athenian historian and general. His History of the Peloponnesian War described how the ancient Greek world was ripped apart. Thucydides attributed the war between Sparta and Athens to two causes: the rise of Athenian power, and the fear that this created in the established power, Sparta.
“Thucydides’ Trap” is a term popularized by American political scientist Graham Allison to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon. It was coined to describe a potential conflict between the US and China.
The South China Sea has emerged as a potential flashpoint in the Asia Pacific region. After the visit of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei in August, a tense encounter happened between US and Chinese aircraft and warships.
The Pentagon released on Thursday a May 26 video showing a Chinese fighter jet swerving in front of a US reconnaissance aircraft over the South China Sea in an “unnecessarily aggressive” maneuver. Pundits said the most worrisome scenario is an unintended escalation, which could lead to war.