Soybeans inch lower on record Brazil output estimates

SINGAPORE — Chicago soybean futures inched lower on Monday, weighed down by estimates of a record output in top exporter Brazil despite slow harvest progress due to heavy rains in key producing regions.

Wheat edged higher after an agriculture consultancy cut its harvest forecast for top exporter Russia, while corn was largely unchanged.

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was down 0.1% at $15.31 a bushel, as of 0443 GMT. Wheat gained 0.6% to $7.61-1/4 a bushel, while corn was largely unchanged at $6.77-1/4 a bushel.

A combination of Argentina drought and slow progress in Brazil harvest lent some support to soybean prices, but these factors could change soon, according to a note from commodities research firm Hightower.

The 7-day outlook for rain in Argentina is very dry and crops could move into a stressful situation, but the forecast for following week shows plentiful rainfall across the heart of the growing region, Hightower said.

Advance sales of Brazil’s 2022/2023 soybean crop rose slightly from last month but still trail last year’s and historical levels by a wide margin, according to data from Safras & Mercado on Friday.

Brazilian farmers have harvested 9.86% of the country’s soybean area so far in the season, with work progressing slowly due to rains in key producing regions, Patria Agronegocios consultancy said on Friday.

Agriculture consultancy IKAR cut its forecast for Russia’s 2023 wheat harvest to 84 million tons from 87 million tons, its head Dmitry Rylko told Reuters.

Ukrainian farms had harvested 53.2 million tons of grain in bunker weight from 97% of the expected area as of Feb. 2, the agriculture ministry said on Friday.

Egyptian state grains buyer the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) said on Saturday it had bought 60,000 tons of yellow corn.

World food prices fell in January for a 10th consecutive month, and are now down some 18% from a record high hit last March following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United Nations food agency said on Friday.

Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT soyoil, soybean and wheat futures contracts on Friday, and net buyers of soymeal and corn futures, traders said.

Shares slid after a run of upbeat economic data from the United States and globally lessened the risk of recession, but also suggested interest rates would have to rise further and stay up for longer.