Military’s hand at play as Thais vote in first poll since coup
BANGKOK: Thailand is gearing up for its first general election since the 2014 coup, though the vote — the first in almost eight years — may not spell the end of the military’s influence on politics.
The Thai army seized power five years ago after months of large-scale demonstrations against the populist Yingluck Shinawatra administration, promising to restore order and reconcile the country’s sharp political divisions before allowing democracy to resume.
After delaying the election date five times and ruling longer than most elected administrations, the military government finally agreed to set polls for March 24. PARTLY DEMOCRATIC The election was supposed to lead the country back to democratic rule, but the new system is only partly democratic, analysts point out, with some calling it a “charade democracy.”
Although the junta will step aside, its influence will most certainly linger on: The country’s election rules and new constitution, passed in a 2016 referendum, both favour the pro- military party.
Junta leader Prayut Chan-o-cha, who is campaigning to continue his role as prime minister, has a high chance of succeeding, analysts say, thanks to the military-appointed Senate, which will vote for the prime minister along with the elected lower house.
One-third of the 750 members of parliament — those in the Senate — is hand-picked by the junta, according to the constitution.
“Prayut has advantages because the new constitution appears like it was almost created to help him win power or establish a charade democracy or both,” Paul Chambers, a political scientist at Naresuan University in northern Thailand, said.
“The likelihood (for Prayut to win) is high,” he added.
The rules have also been designed to undermine big political parties,most notably Pheu Thai, which won a landslide victory in the country’s last general election in 2011.
Pheu Thai is the main proxy of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who remains popular despite living in self-imposed exile after being ousted from power in a 2006 coup. PHEU THAI IS FAVOURITE According to recent polls, Pheu Thai is expected to win a majority of seats in the Lower House, but not enough to form a government.
Prayut is the most popular option for the role of prime ministerial, polls suggest, thanks to his promotion of traditional Thai values and his staunch loyalty to the monarchy.
The Thai Raksa Chart party tried to pull off a political moon shot in February by nominating 67-year-old former princess Ubolratana, King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s elder sister, as a prime ministerial candidate.
“Ubolratana represented perhaps the only person who could clearly upstage Prayut in the polls,” Chambers said.
“With her royal roots, combined with the pluralist ideology and Thaksinis of her party, her electoral victory seemed unstoppable,”he added, referring to the connection between Thai Raksa Chart and Thaksin Shinawatra.
But her stunning bid was quickly quashed when the king issued a decree calling her involvement in politics “unconstitutional and highly inappropriate.” Analysts say that the military’s enduring influence, its human rights record notwithstanding, does offer benefits.
After more than a decade of conflict between the pro-shinawatra camp and their numerous opponents, the entry of the military into Thai politics has now divided the country into three broad political factions.
“The tension will be lessened with three parties involved,” said Chaiyan Chaiyaporn, a political science professor at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.
Yet at the same, the arrival of many new players has further complicated the Thai political landscape, which is already rife with smear campaigns. CONFUSING, MESSY The aftermath of the election will likely “be very confusing and messy,” according to Chaiyan.
Nonetheless the election has brought about an exuberant atmosphere rarely seen under the repressive military regime, with campaign banners on every street corner, pickup trucks blaring candidates ‘names on loudspeakers, and parties touring the country wooing voters.
The excitement is largely shared by the electorate, especially those who have not voted before.