A STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE
Francois Hollande’s election as president in 2012 was supposed to herald a new dawn for French socialism after 17 years of right-wing rule, but by June his party could be struggling to survive. Weeks before the start of an election to pick France’s next president, the ruling bloc is in tatters. Socialist Party (PS) nominee Benoit Hamon is floundering after adopting a hard-left programme that alienated more moderate colleagues. Polls put Hamon in a humiliating fifth place, behind the independent leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon whose charisma and similarly radical programme have overshadowed Hamon’s message.
Party grandees, meanwhile, are jumping ship to back independent centrist Emmanuel Macron, Hollande’s former economy minister who is now favourite to win the presidency.
Macron is more palatable to party moderates who see Hamon’s policies as outdated and resent his refusal to defend the president’s legacy. “The future is very uncertain. The Socialist party must negotiate its transformation for its survival,” said Adelaide Zulfikarpasic of pollster BVA. The potential implosion of the Socialist party weakens France’s two-party system that has been in place for 30 years and has prevented the far right from increasing its power in presidential and legislative elections.
Like in Britain, it also risks leaving the main left-wing party in opposition for years as it takes a radical turn, reinforcing an antiEuropean side on the left. If Macron were to fail, it would be unclear what would happen to the centre-left at a time when traditional centreright is increasingly radicalised and could also be in disarray should its candidate, Francois Fillon, also fail to reach the May 7 run-off.
In 2002, outgoing Socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin was beaten to the presidential runoff by then far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen. The party potentially faces an even bloodier defeat this time.
Their disarray reflects the wider struggle of Europe’s left where leaders in Italy and Germany have fallen on their swords and the British Labour Party is riven by infighting. Some French Socialist lawmakers say in private that their aim now is to limit the damage in the presidential vote so as to build a foundation for the legislative elections in June.
A vote above 10 per cent for Hamon could help save seats, creating a platform for a say in a Macron parliamentary majority, but some kind of party split looks likely. “I think that after the elections, the Socialists will implode into the ‘reformed Socialists’ who could be part of a governing majority and the ‘status quo Socialists’,” a minister in the current government said.