The issues that could shape election year
For the first time in three years, Covid-19 is not likely to be high on the political agenda next year. The virus is still among us, there is still a seven-day homeisolation period and still plenty of people off work, but for most people that’s about it.
While Covid-19 loosened its grip on the body politic a while ago, its consequences are being felt broadly and will continue into the next year.
Nevertheless, the cocktail of lockdowns, alert levels, traffic lights, close contacts and all the rest of it will be gladly consigned to the dustbin of history.
So where does that leave politics over the coming year?
Well, the field becomes much wider and much less predictable.
As ever in an election year, political fortunes could turn on an unexpected event that no-one can even imagine right now.
However, there are a few political issues and events that are significantly more predictable.
Here are some worth keeping an eye out for which could shape the election.
The summer reset and Cabinet reshuffle
Jacinda Ardern has told her ministers to go away and think hard about their priorities for next year and effectively toss out anything that isn’t core business.
One of the clear political lessons from Labour’s busy legislative agenda this year was that there were too many laws being passed on too many things and Labour’s left hand didn’t always fully know or understand what the right hand was up to. (KiwiSaver tax, anybody?)
Expect a major clearing of the decks, a few things to be jettisoned and messaging to tighten up.
Similarly, the early year Cabinet reshuffle, which looks like it will be done before Parliament returns in mid-February, will have to be a radical one, bringing in new faces to refresh what has looked like a pretty tired ministry, giving it some new heft and momentum and promoting some of the more capable junior MPs.
Inflation
Sorry to be Captain Obvious, but inflation will be the one indicator that rules them all.
While there may be a recession at the back end of 2023 (although it may not officially be one by the time the election comes around), the rising price of basically everything will continue to be the biggest issue facing all political parties and one on which votes can be won.
Even if there is a recession and unemployment rises a bit, that will affect only those who lose their jobs. Inflation affects everyone, all the time.
The Government has been brave to put fuel taxes back up to their full level come April, but that too will strain pay packets.
Interest rates will also rise further; inflation is no quick fix.
Co-governance
Last year I identified Three Waters as by far the most effective issue prosecuted by the National Party.
However, it is also the issue that has given far more prominence to ‘‘co-governance’’ and the broader issue of governance arrangements that include iwi: where they should apply, how they should be structured and their desirability.
There is every chance that, leading into an election campaign, this could be a significant cultural marker and it runs broader than just governance:
It’s Mā ori names being given prominence over English ones (Waka Kotahi – New Zealand Transport Agency, Te Whatu Ora – Health New Zealand, for example); It’s te reo becoming a far greater part of everyday New Zealand language; it’s the growing economic clout of iwi.
Not everyone is happy about it. While there is more than a smattering of racism around these debates, they do concern legitimate and important questions about the future nature of New Zealand’s democracy and what is sometimes called a Te Tiriti-centric Aotearoa. ACT has so far made the running on this issue. It’s one to watch.
Crime
Like the economy, crime is a realworld issue that affects people more than many politicians give it credit for.
Unlike the economy, however, the perception of crime and the reality do not necessarily track each other. The uptick in youth crime and the peculiar phenomenon of ramraids have captured the public’s attention.
Earlier in the year it was the spate of shootings across Auckland. The extent to which public and visible crime continues, or is brought under control, will play its political part next year.
Climate change
Climate may be a perennial issue, but that’s because it is a policy area that quite literally seeks to reorient an economy with a significant reliance on fossil fuels towards being one that isn’t – with an ultimate goal of producing no net emissions (so-called Carbon Zero) by 2050. There are plenty of fish-hooks here for everyone.
The National Party’s messaging around this has been all over the place, but its broad view is to let the emissions trading scheme (ETS) do the heavy lifting and mostly leave it to the market. Labour and the Greens have a far more hands-on approach of subsidies and picking winners, thinking the ETS won’t do enough and produces too many sub-optimal outcomes – such as planting lots of forestry on good farming land. The issue of agriculture paying for its emissions will feature strongly and make for complicated internal politics within both the rural sector and the National Party.
The fact is that if New Zealand is to make this transition, everyone will have to pay, something basically every political party shies away from. But in a high-inflation environment, the questions of who and how much will loom large.
Political leadership
This is the great unknown for next year. While Ardern remains Labour’s prime political asset, the public still seems to be coming to grips with who Christopher Luxon is, what he stands for and what he plans to do next year.
Polling seems to indicate that, though a lot of voters are grumpy and perhaps tiring of Labour, Luxon has yet to fully convince them to make to switch to the blue team.
How his leadership progresses over the year, especially as National starts to release policies, will be key to the result.
An interesting subplot to that is the interaction between National and ACT and the extent to which they quietly co-operate and which issues National is happy to let ACT make the running on, so it can concentrate on chasing votes that went to Labour at the last election. The Greens appear to be in a pretty solid position after the coleadership issue was settled in James Shaw’s favour earlier in the year. And Te Pā ti Mā ori continues its quite sophisticated laser-like focus on winning Mā ori voters and trying to secure another electorate seat.
The non-parliamentary parties to watch are, as always, NZ First as Winston Peters continue to cast around for a totemic issue to latch on to, while TOP, led by Raf Manji, could surprise with the right set of issues at play.
In conclusion
The biggest political threat is the unknown unknowns – a maxim that is true for governments and opposition parties alike. Each year is new and different, and it’ll be interesting to see what it has thrown up this year. You’ll also notice that tax did not appear on the list above. More about that next year.
Merry Christmas and a happy New Year.